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"On the one hand, Seinfeld is obviously funny, and his show was frequently hilarious. But that was a decade ago."

I don't think MS is trying to appear young and hip - just funny. Thank God they didn't copy apple and go with someone like Justin Long.

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As someone that has to come up with taglines all the time... "Windows not Walls" is really good.  It's got the alliteration.  It's got a great use of the alternate meaning of Windows that ties back to a core advantage of the platform.  You understand the point in a short and sweet phrase.

It's so much better than the barf-inducing marketing-speak that usually comes from the company.  "The wow starts now".  "Clear, confident, connected". Ugh.  This one really works, where those offer nothing but vapor and arrogant disconnection with how people think and speak.

However, it does seem to be an inherently defensive concept.  What walls?  Whose walls?  It seems like it's all about Apple and it's "closed" system.  And that is a mistake.  If they really are going to address Apple head-on, they are walking into a trap.  They'll be boosting the perceived size of Apple's competitive threat without adding much to the conversation.  It's been said many places and it's true.  Microsoft with 95% of the market must ignore Apple with their 5% in public, lest they acknowledge and legitimize the competition.

Then there's the problem of who they are trying to approach.  Apple has a clear target: unsatisfied PC users.  That informs the writing.  I'm going to assume that Microsoft isn't targeting Apple users.  That'd be a waste of their money.  So they must be targeting XP hold-outs, right?  How does the notion of "Windows not Walls" aim at that group?

The other thing is, will it ring true?  Apple's ads resonate because they ring true for the people who have had trouble with their PC.  Are windows users going to recognize what they're not missing?

Again, "Windows not Walls" seems to be built out of the question "what makes us better than Apple".  If this is the case, then Microsoft really must be worried about Apple.  That's amazing and, again, a validation of Apple's ad effectiveness.

But maybe they're not going to do that.  Maybe it's going to be all about the diversity of choice in the Windows PC world with only vague references to Apple's closed approach.  Not sure how that will move the needle on XP to Vista sales... but we'll see.

Then again, if they think "the Mojave Project" makes sense for them... I wouldn't put it past them to attack Apple directly.  After all, Mojave's core concept was "Vista actually is great, has no problems, and you hate it because you're an ignorant baffoon who just got duped."  Dumb, Dumb, Dumb.  Don't blame your customers.  Is that so hard to understand?

Then there's the dust-covered Seinfeld decision.  It certainly doesn't suggest targeting a youth demographic, that's for sure.  How many college students right now will turn their heads toward the TV when they hear Seinfeld's voice?  How many have seen his show?  Some of Apple's most enormous gains are in education, which has the potential to carry over into life-long purchases.  I would think Microsoft should target these people. 18 to 24/30.  Not 30 to 60 to the exclusion of this younger group.

How did "Bee Movie" do?  Not great.  It's domestic gross didn't top their production costs, and I bet the foreign box office just barely got them over the top of their marketing costs.  Kids don't know Seinfeld.

But who knows.  You never can tell what will come of a campaign or what might get traction.

Here's my advice:  Have gates be himself and be honest.  He's admitted to Vista issues openly on many occasions.  He's the leader of the industry and his honesty has been refreshing and endearing.

OPEN ON BILL GATES IN HIS OFFICE AT MICROSOFT. THE COLOR PALETTE IS FLAT AND DRAB.

"Hello, America.  I'm Bill Gates.  No, I'm not running for office...

GATES GETS UP FROM BEHIND HIS DESK.

I just wanted to let you know that our team has been working very hard on Vista... with a little help from this... (he pulls out an indiana-jones-style whip from his back).  And well, it's really come along way.   More compatible.  Faster.  I mean, wow.  It's really good now.  

So take a second look.

Seriously...

Or else... (with a little smirk as he lifts the whip)

CUT TO VISTA LOGO ENDPAGE.  We hear a whip sound.

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We will just have to see the creative to gauge whether it has any "punch".  To be sure, Seinfeld isn't someone who would simply recite lines written by someone else--he's an excellent writer, especially when writing for himself.  Seinfeld is the master of ironic comedy, the juxtaposition of two elements that by themselves are sensible, but when combined borders on the absurd.  Like Apple damning Vista in their advertising but at the same time enabling users to run Vista on the Mac platform.   To quote Seinfeld from a previous ad campaign, "Release the hounds!"

Keep in mind the sentence above that says, "But Mr. Seinfeld will be one of the key celebrity pitchmen, say people close to the situation." has a key word in it...see if you can figure out what that word is.

Microsoft is not stupid, as many like to try to say. If you think that they gained their entire market dominance through monopoly abuse, you are sadly mistaken. Remember, it is not illegal to hold a monopoly in a given market segment, only to abuse it...so MS had to build up that dominance before they could abuse it.

Lets wait and see what this marketing campaign holds for them...It really cannot be any worse thant the "Mac vs PC" series that Apple has been resting on for the past few years. Yeah, they are funny - but I think that most people see them for what they are, a satirical jab at Microsoft that A LOT OF PEOPLE have seen and laughed at...but not that many have acted upon. I still feel that Apple would have been better served actually demonstrating some of the OS X features that they feel would coerce a potential customer to make the move. Instead, they have come off as the pesky little neighbor kid that really wants to belong. With the education market dominance that Apple used to hold you would have thought that eventually that would have turned into sales in the consumer market, but for some reason, it didn't. After all, how many of our kids grew up in K-12 using Macs, way before setting eyes on a Windows PC?

I am not a marketing person at all...but I would think that the goal is to sell product...not try to appear cool.

--tayme

Honestly I think Seinfeld is a bad choice.  He seems washed up, and his recent exposure was him very publicly bashing some woman that rightfully claimed his wife ripped off her cook book ideas.  It made him look like an @$$ picking on this woman on Jay Leno's show and other places.

Yesterday I went to a Tech Net presentation in a big Midwest city, and it covered, "Why Windows Vista SP1", Powershell administrative tasks for Vista, and new GPO's that come with 2008/Vista.  They even gave out a full free copy of Vista Ultimate at the end of the day.

Anyhow the first part "Why Windows Vista SP1" was sad and I mean truly sad.  It consisted of the MS guy blogs.technet.com/shawnt) basically going over why Vista (pre-sp1) was so bad and the many problems it had when it shipped.  I mean I got 2 hours of why Vista sucked, in detail, and how they messed up.  I was very surprised that MS went this route.  I guess its good to do that, and move on but it re-in-forced the bad feeling associated with Vista.  At one point he even went into great detail about how MANY MS employees went back to XP because they could not do their work!!!

The last thing he said on that subject was that approximately 5000 people at MS were given new Lenovo notebooks with 4gigs of RAM to work the new Mohave/Vista campaign going on, so they could know what its like to have a good experience with Vista.

Anyhow the rest of the presentations were great.

Hmm, I'm not sure this will go down to well outside of the US. Seinfeld isn't what you could call a comedy legend in the UK.

In fact, i reckon they should have gone more for the likes of Jimmy Carr, who appears to be a stiff, public school educated toff, untill he opens his mouth to reveal some very sharp, and satirical wit.

Oh well.

How interesting. When Seinfeld was young, hip and relevant, his show was known for having the latest model of Mac in his TV-show-apartment.

Now that he's on the downside of his career, known more for his past work than what he's doing now, he's pitching for Microsoft.

So many analogies, so little time.

:-)

Seinfeld is one of the celebrity pitchmen.  Candidates:

Shelley Berman.  Mort Sahl.  Norm Crosby.

As one of three people who didn't watch Seinfeld, I expect to laugh at the funny parts and ignore the message, just as I did with the Apple ads (which did have one effect on me:  they made me a Hodgman fan).

The ad campaign involves the entire Windows ecosystem.  Not just Vista.

Jerry is quickly recognizable, but just what they do with him is a mystery.  I don't think his humor will translate into a 30 second clip.  It didn't during those Amex/Superman clips.

I really think it will be Jerry asking about some way to get something done and Gates responding with some feature of the Windows infrastructure.  Just a series of conversations...some humorous, some not so humorous.

Here's something that CRACKED me up.  Enjoy!

>>If Steve Jobs had been marketing Vista, he would've gotten up on stage and said:

"Just one more thing. We've got this cool new OS we want to share with you today. It's incredibly secure, packed with innovation, but it's still a little rough around the edges.

"No one in history has done this before--an entire consumer-ready OS dedicated from the ground-up to the idea of your security...

"A lot of our developers will need time to catch up with our new security model, so we've left in this noisy security mode to let you know when you're running an old app. Let's take a look...

"Vista is designed for computers that are still one or two years away from production, so I'm not going recommend that you run this on your current system--but you'll want to make sure your next computer is running it.

"This is the future of desktop computing--this is the future of Windows. If you want to help us out by trying this out this groundbreaking new OS, we'll have a few copies to give away here today..."<<

>>The last thing he said on that subject was that approximately 5000 people at MS were given new Lenovo notebooks with 4gigs of RAM to work the new Mohave/Vista campaign going on, so they could know what its like to have a good experience with Vista.<<

Thats what it takes to make people happy with Vista, eh?

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they really should use the guy that plays jim in the office, Would make a good counter to justin long

Off Topic, sort of. But I think this is what happens around here a lot...and, yes...this is SFW.

ars.userfriendly.org/cartoons

--tayme

@gorath

Jimmy Carr would have been great.

Billy Connolly might have been able to fill requirements on both sides of the pond.

The major thing I remember about Seinfeld was the latest Mac that was always in the room.

Paul is right to point out that Windows outsells OS X 30:1

•Unfortunately 21 of those go to Enterprise where no one has any choice.

•Another 4 go to Eastern Europe, Africa, South America and parts of Asia where Apple is not in the market.

So the real figure is 5:1 and that soon will be 4:1

Where people actually have a choice Windows continues to do well but Apple and OS X is catching up - and quickly.

@tayme that is funny and with the beard it reminds me of Mike from Microsoft:)  Who I am sure will be all over this thread once he gets to work on the west coast.

Billy connoly would have been really good as well, but the reason I thought of Jimmy car was because of his initial appearance of being staid, hiding a crazy sense of humour.

That analogy fits well with windows (from haters and lovers' perspectives! haha!)

Dexter Maitland.  Red Buttons.  But wait...here it is:  Durwood Kirby

@bettieblu

Point 1 - (as I've already stated), I don't work for Microsoft. I have in the past but don't right now.

Point 2 - Frankly, I find this thread tedious. Nobody outside the people involved with the campaign knows anything so all we have is idle speculation on rumors. Not a lot of meat to dig into.

This thread is roughly equivalent to watching political pundits debate each other on who the Vice-Presidential candidates will be. Lots of opinions, no information backing up those opinions and a mutual agreement to ignore that it's a total waste of time.

@bettieblu - That is what I was thinking. User Friendly is a hilarious strip that I have been reading ever since I read the book - "Evil Geniuses in a Nutshell" - oreilly.com/.../9781565928619

--tayme

@mikegalos - You need to lighten up and learn to have a little "Friday Fun"!!! Life is too short to always be as serious as you are on this site.

--tayme

@tayme

OK

Obama will pick Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius

McCain will pick Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman

Jerry Seinfeld will be a minor part of a "Windows, not Walls" ad campaign that will feature dozens of people.

Whoopie! What fun!

Wait, there's a presedential election going on in America? Wow, I hadn't heard.

gorath

Several. The 2012 campaigns started about 18 months ago.

@Tayme

Just how much can you manage to get wrong in a single post?

"Yeah, they are funny - but I think that most people see them for what they are, a satirical jab at Microsoft that A LOT OF PEOPLE have seen and laughed at...but not that many have acted upon. "

By "most people" you probably mean the Windows centric tech writers, bloggers and the people who read and comment on such sites. That probably includes you and maybe most of your friends but you know what Tayme .... Apple's campaign is not directed at these guys. As John said above, it's directed at Joe-non-techie-Windows-user .... of which there are many hundreds of thousands more.

"I still feel that Apple would have been better served actually demonstrating some of the OS X features...."

Why? That's just boring! Computer users already know what an OS looks like. Apple and it's agency are addressing consumer's other "needs". The iPhone ads showed how the phone works. Because it was different to the other phones on the market. What's the betting that Microsoft's campaign 'demonstrating' Vista?

"I am not a marketing person at all..."

Obviously!

"....but I would think that the goal is to sell product...not try to appear cool."

How about selling product....AND appearing cool?

Last year Apple's 'Get a Mac' campaign won an EFFIE award. That's not 'cos the ads looked great or were directed Fellini. That's an advertising effectiveness  award!

From 1Q06 (prior to the campaign) to 2Q08 Apple has moved from 4% US market share to 8.5%. Source Gartner. To add a little detail .... that is an 88% growth in unit sales .... in just over 2 years. In the same timeframe the rest of the US PC market grew by just over 7%.

"...but I would think that the goal is to sell product"

Yes it is!

Before anyone starts quoting Apple's worldwide share ..... don't! The Getamac campaign was primarily a US thing. Smaller campaigns in the UK and Japan.

@mikegalos - See...was that so hard?

I hope that you are not such a condescending a$$hole in real life. Enjoy your weekend.

--tayme

Apple. Much is made of the US (in reality all of North and South America) market but the European market is up 47% over the last year and about half the units shipped as in the Americas.  Considering that the Apple's presence here  is largely confined to Western Europe (as opposed to Eastern) the figures are impressive, as is the growth.

Geez, MaryW...don't take it personal.

Like I said, most people that saw those ads got a chuckle, because they are funny, but relatively few ran out and bought a Mac because of them. By most people, I mean "Joe-non-techie-Windows-user " as you and John put it. I have suggested Macs to many people...especially those that tend to have usafe browsing habits and call me regularly to fix the problems that are created by that. I myself, have had to teach many of those people how to get around in OS X. It is not as intuitive as the pure Mac fans lead on. There are differences, both positive and negative that need to be learned. Those "Joe-non-techie-Windows-users" may have never used a Mac before.

Like I said, a lot of our kids grew up on Macs and Apple ]['s, I would have thought htat would have turned into some consumer sales...but for the large part, it did not...and I find that a shame, because I tend to like OS X better for the basic home user that we are discussing here.

As for selling product and appearing cool...sure, you are right...that would be the ultimate goal. And if Apple feels that being the pesky neighbor kid is cool...they succeeded. And just so you know, that is a comparison that I have heard various versions of from some of the people that I have suggested Macs to...not from any of the "Windows centric tech writers, bloggers and the people who read and comment on such sites. That probably includes you and maybe most of your friends" that you described. In fact, I had an older relative tell me that they would be embarrassed to own a Mac because of the "snotty nosed punk" in those commercials. Probably not the demographic that Apple was shooting for, but a lost potential customer, none the less.

The Jerry S. ads that MS is prepping will most likely be satire as well, but obviously, people are aware of the Windows OS GUI, and I would hope that along side of those, they demonstrate WHY Vista and the entire Windows ecosystem works well...pointing out things like Media Center, Zune, XBOX 360 compatibility and the like.

Anyway...you enjoy your weekend, too...and try not to be the mikegalos of the Mac world...let Lindy and others be the ones to do that.

--tayme

>>Frankly, I find this thread tedious.<<

You're the only one who finds the subject boring.

Check out the rest of the web.

Macintosh Market Share in the "Macintosh is doomed" days of 1997 - 3.4%

Macintosh Market Share now - 3.5%

Sounds like "not that many have acted upon" is dead on the money.

Ocean

If we're going to talk about advertising, rather than speculate on a future campaign where virtually everything is unknown, how about commenting on Apple's admission that they paid actors to stand in line in front of stores in Europe to make the iPhone 3G rollout look like a bigger deal than it was.

You have to have a herd for the sheep to join and if there's no herd available, buy one.

3.4, 3.5, 3.6????  Its stock prices and growth year over year that matters to Joe share holder.

Market share numbers are so skewed and never accurate to the point of being only worth something if you are a fanboy or blog writer.  

Sales figurers, stock price and growth (or decline) numbers are real.

@MaryW

I'm betting that you have an applo logo on your car...

So, Apple wins all these advertising awards huh?  Wow, I'm just so impressed!!

Maybe if they spent a little less on all the ads they could bring down the prices to where they should be...

"If we're going to talk about advertising, rather than speculate on a future campaign where virtually everything is unknown, how about commenting on Apple's admission that they paid actors to stand in line in front of stores in Europe to make the iPhone 3G rollout look like a bigger deal than it was."

Sure, Mike.

It wasn't Apple who did that, it was their partner in Poland (Orange).

How about you do ten seconds of research instead of reflexively regurgitating lies that you didn't even verify?

www.afterdawn.com/.../15187.cfm

www.washingtonpost.com/.../AR2008082201015.html

bettieblu

If this were a discussion of buying and selling stock, you'd be right. It isn't. You're not.

As for year over year growth, going from 3.4% to 3.5% in share over 11 years works out to 0.27% growth year over year.

A quarter of a percent annual growth rate isn't exactly something to brag about.

lotsa

My point remains no matter who wrote the checks (Other reports, btw, say Apple admitted to hiring the crowd)

You have to have a herd for the sheep to join and if there's no herd available, buy one.

Anything to change the topic, eh Mike?

@mikegalos - Why did you suddenly change the subject to the iPhone? Talk about sheep...your entire existence on Paul's site seems to be aimed at Apple bashing...even to the point that you will hijack threads and post nonsensical, unrelated, unsubstantiated remarks, while at the same time, claiming that the discussion is not about what another reader posts. Again, you and your "God" complex baffles me.

--tayme

Mike I think tayme may have a point about you.  That cartoon about being right all the time, and my previous comment about you being all over this thread are dead on.

I am pretty sure this discussion was about MS advertising campaign to turn around its image and how they are going to use Jerry Seinfeld to help do that.  Any talk of Market share started with Mary I think, and then you took that conversation negative with your market share numbers.

I could argue why Apples market share of 3.5% = annual sales of almost half of Microsoft's with a market share of 92,93,94%?, all day long....but its Friday and this is just some IT blog that does not matter on any day.  So I yield to your wisdom and intelligence, and I declare you the winner at the Winsuper site blog-fest.

Have a great weekend.

Seinfeld is one of the most respected comedians touring today.

Yes, TOURING TODAY, not in retirement, and not "washed up".

He routinely sells out arenas, and his recent animation voice debut did very well. Also, his "old" show is still a big draw in syndication

And to see some of his recent work in ads, just YouTube the HP commercial with Seinfeld. It was HPs most successful.

The point is that people know who he is. He isnt some underground, known only to a few people in the know, comic.

So yeah the post from Paul was completely silly. if he actually spent some time looking into Seinfeld the person instead of assuming that the Seinfeld TV show was all there is to the guy.

Personally speaking, I do not find Jerry Seinfeld funny at all. Not in the slightest. I absolutely disliked his show with a passion, because there wasn't the slightest hint of comedy. Then there was the Puerto Rican Day episode. BOOOOO!

Now some of the catchphrases like yada, yada, yada, I'm very fond of. Thats about as far as I get Seinfeld.

Honestly, there are comedians or actors with comedic talent who would have been a much better choice. Robin Williams comes to mind. Carlos Mencia, Cedric The Entertainer, Chris Rock, Brendan Fraiser, Will Smith, and/or Vince Vaugh would have been my pick's. Or go with an actor with a commanding presence like Morgan Freeman, Liam Neeson, Harrison Ford, Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson, or Denzel Washington. I think those guys would have been much stronger pitchmen. You could name plenty of actresses too.

I think parroting Justin Long is lame and self defeating. There are actors much cooler and with more geek cred. I believe the idea is to appeal Vista to the average users out there. The goal is to dispell the fiction from the fact, squash the many lies, deceptions and exaggeratons put out there by ignorant tech pundints and Apple.

There would be so many ways to make a creative commericial that unique, humorous, thought provoking, and sells the product.

That all being said, I do like the "Windows, not Walls." Thats really deep on many levels. You could go back to Ronald Reagan famous, "Mr. Gorbachev, Open this Gate! Mr. Gorbachev, Tear Down this Wall!" moment or Obama's "The Walls of the 21st century" moment. Or you can use Bill Clinton's "Bridges to the 21st century" and highlight the popular history of Windows. The spirit of how 95, 98, 2000, and XP lead up to Vista. Also, Microsoft could use the footage of Macworld 1997, where Gates invest and helps save Apple.

I will withhold full judgement till I see the footage and public reaction.

bettieblu

There's a reason they went from Apple Computer, Inc. to just Apple, Inc.

They've gone from being a computer company to being a consumer electronics company that has a computer line with the apparent goal of becoming the American Sony. (And in neither case have they been a software company)

subzero

Exactly. We really have no idea what the ad campaign will be about and we'll actually know something in a few weeks.

If I'm going to speculate, I'd say that the walls reference will be to being trapped inside systems that don't have the huge range of software that's present in Windows. Something like "Any software will let you edit a blog but what if you need to do x? (image of user running into a wall) (cut to image of real professional using Windows Vista to do x).(voiceover - "Your life needs Windows, not walls")

"Other reports, btw, say Apple admitted to hiring the crowd"

Citation, please? So far, I've only read that from Paul Thurrott's "wininfo" site and he misattributed the Orange executive quote to Apple.

Oh, and whatever source you do cite, please make sure it trumps the Washington Post.

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@Mike

Gosh Windows is doing so well on the sub-continent.

Let's forget about the massive Apple growth in places like the US, Canada, the UK, Australia, New Zealand

It is a little bit like the Germans saying in WWII we are the bees knees in Mauritius, let's forget about D Day and the Russian front.

lotsa

Seeing how this is Paul's blog, I'll cite Paul.

Again, the point is that whether it was Apple or Orange or any other fruit (sorry, but how could anyone resist Apple and Orange in the same story), they decided the way to sell iPhones was to count on people joining a crowd rather than thinking for themselves. And thinking that so strongly that they hired a crowd for the sheep to join.

I do think Seinfeld is a great choice.  He is well liked by a large population of people, and he has purposely retired from most new work.  If you look at the rest of the cast of the show, they have all tried a lot of different roles and none of them stick.  They are just too well known in their famous roles.  They touched on this in an episode of Curb Your Enthusiasm, which both came from the same person of course (Larry David).  The movie Hollywoodland also is a great example of this.  Seinfeld has avoided this fate because of his limited roles.

A well liked and funny person is a perfect foil to a whiny kid.

@subzerohitman721 - Remember, they said that Seinfeld will be ONE of the key celebrity pitchmen. That leads me to believe that htere will be more. Time will tell.

--tayme

johnpapola:

Wow, now this is the type of post I read these discussions for. I wish there were more people such as yourself making posts.

Avro

You've got it 100% backwards.

Windows does well worldwide

Apple does really, really badly everywhere except the US

Apple only does reasonably well in US college student sales and some remaining niche vertical markets.

It isn't Windows that needs the "let's narrow the market down to a niche we can win and then talk only about that niche". That's the Apple pizza box ad.

"He routinely sells out arenas, and his recent animation voice debut did very well. "

I guess it depends on how you measure it. It certainly wasn't a critical success:

www.rottentomatoes.com/.../bee_movie

And was it a financial success? Not even close:

Bee movie box office take was just under $127 million:

www.boxofficemojo.com/movies

Production costs ran close to $150 million (according to suite101.com):

"Bee Movie's initial box office is cause for concern for DreamWorks Animation, since the studio reported that the flick cost $150 million to make."

So how, exactly do you measure "success"?

"Seeing how this is Paul's blog, I'll cite Paul."

Spoken like a true WinJihadist--repeat "facts" event though they've already been proven to be wrong.

Domestic:   $126,631,277     44.1%

+ Foreign: $160,449,285   55.9%

= Worldwide: $287,080,562

In your zeal to try to just be soooooo damn smart, you didnt bother even reading the site you cited.

And seriously who cares what some movie critic thought of a film.

@tayme

"Geez, MaryW...don't take it personal."

Don't worry, I'm not. I was just responding to your post where you criticise Apple's ad campaign... for not showing the OS and not leading to increased sales. I figured that there was a chance that you may not have realised that Apple had doubled it's US market share since the campaign started.

Now after seeing the figures.. you write...

"I would have thought htat would have turned into some consumer sales...but for the large part, it did not"

I repeat! Apple had doubled it's US market share since the campaign started. That's from Gartner (a leading member of the iCabal obviously)... not me. Care to explain how growing 80% in two years is NOT increasing sales?

@mikegalos

"Sounds like "not that many have acted upon" is dead on the money."

One more time .... for the hard of hearing!

Since the start of Apple's 'getamac' campaign US Mac sales have increased by 88% resulting in them doubling their market share.

Mary

I don't know what market they were talking about but...

Apple's share of the US market has NOT doubled since the "Get a Mac" campaign started in 2006. (It's been in the 7% range the whole time)

Apple's share of the Global market has NOT doubled since the "Get a Mac" campaign started in 2006. (It's been in the 3.5% range the whole time)

Apple's share of the Non-US market has NOT doubled since the "Get a Mac" campaign started in 2006. (It's been in the 2.3% range the whole time)

Perhaps they're citing sales of laptops with magnetic power connectors to left handed college students in Northern California who wear mittens.

guys, quit the bitching, yeah?MikeGalos, please be quite, you're just stirring up another argument

and everyone else, less hard-headedness? please? (on both sides)

Re. the crowds outside Orange stores in Poland. There is much that is pathetic about this.

If it's true then it's just a bit .... pathetic!.

Once the crowds are in place .... if it's true that a "spokesman" admits to it ... then that's pretty pathetic.

If it's true that Mike says Apple paid for iPhone queues in EUROPE.....

when Reuters writes "Orange is paying dozens of actors to stand in queues" ... it's equally pathetic. Oh shoot! Its true.

Dam no love for Microsoft Mikey anymore:)

@gorath - Good advice on a Friday afternoon.

@MaryW - I am asking this because I don't know and have never seen a breakdown - Some people like to attribute various percentages of Windows sales to the Enterprise market, and suggest that those numbers should be subtracted from the overall figures because the user has not choice but to use Windows. In fact, Avro does exactly that in this thread.  Do you know what percentage of Apple sales go to Educational Institutions and the Audio/Video production segments? Shouldn't we, in turn, subtract those numbers from Apples sales to get a "true" picture?

Again, it has been my experience that most people that I know that own Macs, including myself, were not swayed by the Mac vs PC adverts. I am not a recent convert, either...I have been using Apple products your many, many years. I am still able to see that both OSes serve the population as a whole, very well...so does Solaris, HP_UX, Z-OS, various Linux distros, and others. I am not wearing blinders that block out the many uses of each Operating System like so many others are.

--tayme

@mikegalos

You must have a heck of a good laugh at how you keep slapping these guys around on a daily basis.

MaryW

Even if it's just Orange in Poland, one thing is sure, iPhone sales in Poland will be up by a huge percentage!

(Of course, since the iPhone wasn't available in Poland before this, it'd be hard for them not to be up by a huge, even infinite, percentage)

:-)

@Master3

Everyone needs a hobby.

@Master3 - Do you mean how Mike keeps lambasting people for the very things that he does...There is no doubt that Mike is a smart guy when it comes to MS and Windows...but it seems to end there. His "God" complex is pretty entertaining, though.

--tayme

Actually, we DO know what the campaign is about:

>>Here is Microsoft confirming that Vista problems exist:

   "We broke a lot of things. We know that, and we know it caused you a lot of pain. It got customers thinking, hey, is Windows Vista a generation we want to get invested in?" So Brad Brooks, Microsoft's VP of Windows Vista consumer marketing, fessed up publicly this week.

Here's Microsoft referring to Apple:

   "We've got a pretty noisy competitor out there," Brooks said of Apple whose "I'm a Mac... and I'm a PC," commercials criticize Windows Vista. "You know it. I know it. It's caused some impact. We're going to start countering it. They tell us it's the iWay or the highway. We think that's a sad message. Software out there is made to be compatible with your whole life." <<

@ Mike

Some figures for you.

Apple is more popular in Canada than the US

Apple dominates the education market in Europe in new sales

Apple dominates the education market in Australia in new sales

The BBC has said that 33% of the hits on its website come from MacUsers

This is hardly what normal people would consider "badly outside the US"

Mac shipments were 400,000 in Europe in the last Quarter, up 47% over the same Quarter last year

Talk about the Grand Illusion

Sorry, I looked at the wrong column.  That should have been Mac Sales to Europe:

2007 3Q      400,000 units

2008  3Q     600,000 units

"Apple is more popular in Canada than the US"

Ok. Hockey is more popular too, so what?

"Apple dominates the education market in Europe in new sales

Apple dominates the education market in Australia in new sales"

Find a niche. Declare victory. When you have to subtract everything else out of the pie so you can make Apple "dominate", then what does that tell you?

"The BBC has said that 33% of the hits on its website come from MacUsers"

Again...So?

"This is hardly what normal people would consider "badly outside the US"

You really didn't illustrate anything to be honest.

"Mac shipments were 400,000 in Europe in the last Quarter, up 47% over the same Quarter last year"

How many were sold? How many PCs were "shipped" as well? And up 47% from what number?

"Talk about the Grand Illusion"

Exactly.

"Sorry, I looked at the wrong column.  That should have been Mac Sales to Europe:"

Oops, ok then, 600,000 total.

If Vista was only on 600,000 computers, would you be here to tell us how much of a success or how much of a failure?

I would take it that all the 600,000 were sold.  Pretty obvious.

Niche markets.  Yes, like the Enterprise niche market where a few gormless corporate drones order vast numbers of computers based only on commodity pricing.  :-))

"Apple does really, really badly everywhere except the US"

Define "badly". The last I looked, Apple was insanely profitable. After all, they're  in business to make money, not satisfy the WinJihadists of the world. The former is something they do very well, the latter is impossible unless you have the Microsoft Windows Logo tattooed on your backside.

Perhaps Waethorn can tell us if "mikegalos" does.

@Avro - "based only on commodity pricing."

I believe that compatibility with existing applications has quite a bit to do with it as well.  Take off the blinders...look at the real world. Like I have said...each OS has its place. Get over it, or continue living a boring life.

--tayme

As defined by Mike "badly" is 2.4 million units in Europe alone this year at current rates and doing ather well in the home and education markets in several parts of the world outside the US.

Obviously a follower of the Mad Hatter in Alice in Wonderland

"When I say a word it means neither more nor less than I want it to mean"

@mathue,

Thank you very much!  What a nice compliment!

I guess nobody bought my script pitch for the gates commercial, though.  Heh.  I think it'd be pretty funny and is in line with his statements about Vista to paraphrase from his interview at D "being a lesson in mistakes".  

Of course, this thread rapidly devolved into a meaningless and context-free debate about Apple marketshare instead of an on-topic discussion of Microsoft's strategy and potential effectiveness of this new slogan and front man.

meh.

Again, if Microsoft thinks that "fighting back against Apple directly" is going to help their brand, given their market position, they're in for a surprise.   They are Goliath in the computing world.  That narrative works against any effort to attack Apple as the David of computing.  The slogan is very good.  But I just don't understand it outside of a comparison to Apple.  What walls besides those imposed in the Apple world?  Anyone?  Anyone?

I'm frankly not sure why they even care if people skip Vista or worry if they do.  They make their license fee on every PC no matter what happens.  Given that, it's hard not to take this effort and an implicit admission that Apple's gains are having a material impact and not just a perceptive one.

If vista is so great (and I'm not saying that it isn't great), than that reality will emerge given that Vista's adoption is inevitable.  Funny Apple ads aren't going to make someone that's enjoying their PC suddenly stop enjoying it.  Clearly, Microsoft is not confident that Vista's benefits speak for themselves in the use of the product.

Apple, on the other, is very confident about OSX.  That, coupled with the inherent non-TV-friendly nature of an OS demo is the reason why Apple leaves software demos to be done one-on-one at an Apple store and not in 30 second TV spots. That's for you Tayme.  I know you've advocated OSX ads.  I think they'd be horribly boring and ineffective.

"Again, if Microsoft thinks that "fighting back against Apple directly" is going to help their brand, given their market position, they're in for a surprise.   They are Goliath in the computing world.  That narrative works against any effort to attack Apple as the David of computing.  The slogan is very good.  But I just don't understand it outside of a comparison to Apple.  What walls besides those imposed in the Apple world?  Anyone?  Anyone?"

Ok now the greatest computer company on Earth, with the supposed best devices, best OS, coolest computers and just oh so loved by everyone on Earth, as we are constantly told by its wing-nut fans, is now just the tiny "David" being "bullied" by evil old Microsoft?

So it's OK for Apple to shoot its mouth off about MS, but heaven forbid a company exercises it's right to speak for itself, then the Apple folk cant stand it.

"If vista is so great (and I'm not saying that it isn't great), than that reality will emerge given that Vista's adoption is inevitable.  Funny Apple ads aren't going to make someone that's enjoying their PC suddenly stop enjoying it.  Clearly, Microsoft is not confident that Vista's benefits speak for themselves in the use of the product."

Are you really living in La La land? You have an ARMY of blogs, tech sites, print writers, trolls like the ones on this site, commentators on VIRTUALLY EVERY SINGLE STORY ABOUT MS, who do nothing but bash and trash EVERY LIVING THING THAT THIS COMPANY DOES, and you actually typed that  you are surprised that MS has to run ads countering the FUD?

"Apple, on the other, is very confident about OSX.  That, coupled with the inherent non-TV-friendly nature of an OS demo is the reason why Apple leaves software demos to be done one-on-one at an Apple store and not in 30 second TV spots. That's for you Tayme.  I know you've advocated OSX ads.  I think they'd be horribly boring and ineffective."

Ads from the same company telling us how bad Vista supposedly is are totally ok, but they cant be bothered to tell us how good theirs is in the same time frame?

I wasn't a big fan of Seinfeld's show, but i think it's worth a shot. I guess that I thought that the Bee Movie was a a success based on the presence of Bee Movie toys at McDonalds! I would bet that MS takes the high road and does not exploit him as a switcher, but MS ads need a fresh start. The Zune TV ads were not good, IMO. I kinda get it that Zune is for all ages, so they showed people from kids to octagenarians, but it made me feel that it was a toy for old people, you know, like Mike G.:) I'm definitely with tayme as the ads should focus on what the product does, not what the competition does not. Apple used Jeff Goldbloom and Sinbad, which are nice poeple, but not interesting. I had read that the Mac/PC Brit ads accross the pond came off as smug, so hopefully MS will learn not to make the same mistakes that Apple has made with some ads. The Vista bashing has got to go. Showing unity would be interesting to many,IMO. Let them fuse the two guys and let it 'feel good'. Sorry I didn't post earlier, but I was saving lives.

How can people decide whether this was a good decision or a bad one without even seeing the ads? You really don't need superstars to make good ads.

Do you really want to discuss how Seinfeld's movies did at the box office? Who cares? And, again, wait to see the ads before you jump to conclusions. How can someone compare Apple's ads to Microsoft's ads that are not out yet? Weird people.

Oh, and Jerry Seinfeld was never "young, hip and relevant". Even in his Seinfeld days, he was a little geeky. Maybe what lotsa meant was he was "young, hip and relevant" in lotsa's opinion because he had a Mac in his apartment.

I don't know who the hell is figuring out these figures for macs in european markets. But, apple dominates the education market? pish, that has to be a flat out lie, I reckon.

They're doing well, yes, but not that well.

As for media? none of our video or audio workstations are macs, because we want our hardware to still be relevant in the future. We've been stung before by systems that are incompatible a mere 5 years down the line. We don't use macs, 'cause we don't want to go there again.

I think Apple's ads are like negative political attack ads, frankly. I don't see any difference between McCain's Celebrity ads that attack Barack for being all talk and no substance and compare him to Paris Hilton and Britney or the Mac ads. They are both funny and they both attack the opposing side.

The difference in the reaction to the ads is because the press likes Barack on one hand and Apple on the other.

Here's a question for everyone:

A lot of Mac owners seem to be obsessed with what Paul has to say about Windows. In fact, we even have a poster, who goes by  "Paul's Fact Checker". We also have lotsamystuff, nim55,cesjr, among others, frequently commenting about how inaccurate Paul's reporting about Apple is.  And while they do look for inaccuracies* in Paul's commentary about  other products like Wii and PS3, their main focus is Apple, as many must have noticed.

My question is to all those who read blogs and articles written by those on the Apple side, like Gruber, Mossberg, Pogue, and to some extent, Daniel Lyons.  Do you have this many Windows users coming there and commenting on everything these people have to say about Microsoft?

*An inaccuracy here is any opinion that differs from theirs.

@tayme

"Do you know what percentage of Apple sales go to Educational Institutions and the Audio/Video production segments?"

Absolutely no idea! I think those figures might be a little beyond the great Google.

"Again, it has been my experience that most people that I know that own Macs, including myself, were not swayed by the Mac vs PC adverts."

The ads are not targeting Mac users. Apple's fiendish plot is to snare the poor unsuspecting Windows user ...... before they make a grave mistake. :)

With respect, I don't think personal anecdotal evidence tells us anything. I am pretty sure that Gartner doesn't publish their figures after asking what computers all their friends are using. On the other hand ... you never know... that appears to be good enough for Mr Galos.

"Ads from the same company telling us how bad Vista supposedly is are totally ok, but they cant be bothered to tell us how good theirs is in the same time frame?"

Good point. And that's exactly why I think they're like the negative political ads. And anyone who talks about the fact that Apple's ads work, have you heard of Kevin Trudeau? He's made millions of dollars just by talking about how much the FDA sucks. Are his infomercials effective? You bet. His book about natural cures was on the NY Times bestseller's list for a long time. Does he talk about any of his cures in the infomercial? Not really. He simply targets the FDA and drug industry.

Mac fans really do amaze me sometimes.

Where else can you have people bragging about the exceptionally high profit margins of a company they buy from?

What kind of Stockholm Syndrome does it take to say, "The company I buy from takes more of my money than the company you buy from" and be proud of it.

To top it off, they simultaneously talk about how the stories of Apple products being overpriced are lies.

It's like hanging out with people who say "The oil companies deserve those profits" while paying two day's salary to fill up their old Buick.

@mikegalos

"I don't know what market they were talking about but..."

They are talking about THE PC MARKET. You know the one. The one that Paul talks about every quarter. I am not trying to trick you Mike (maybe Gartner is...), there is no catch.... these figures are not split up into business vs consumer .... or cheap vs expensive ..... or even fruit flavoured vs ..... er ... not fruit flavoured!. Just PCs. All of them.

"Apple's share of the US market has NOT doubled since the "Get a Mac" campaign started in 2006. (It's been in the 7% range the whole time)"

Apple US market share for 2005 : 3.98%

Apple US market share 1Q 2006 : 3.96%

GetaMac campaign starts May 2006

Apple US market share 2Q 2008 : 8.47%

Source: Gartner

"Apple's share of the Global market has NOT doubled since the "Get a Mac" campaign started in 2006. (It's been in the 3.5% range the whole time)"

Apple global market share for 2005 : 2.17%

Apple global market share 1Q 2006 : 1.95%

GetaMac campaign starts May 2006

Apple global market share 2Q 2008 : 3.47%

Source: Gartner

"Apple's share of the Non-US market has NOT doubled since the "Get a Mac" campaign started in 2006. (It's been in the 2.3% range the whole time)"

You can work this one out yourself.... you're obviously good with numbers!

You can start here. Knock yourself out.

www.gartner.com/.../page.jsp

shark

"My question is to all those who read blogs and articles written by those on the Apple side, like Gruber, Mossberg, Pogue, and to some extent, Daniel Lyons.  Do you have this many Windows users coming there and commenting on everything these people have to say about Microsoft? "

You do see a few but certainly not as high a percentage as here and absolutely nowhere near the 28x as many which is the market share ratio (28 PCs for every Mac) would suggest.

Sorry for the barrage of posts from me, but I would like to reiterate that I have nothing against Apple's products. I think the iPhone is a very cool and innovative phone.

What I have a problem with is the ads and the attitudes of some of the Mac owners. I think the ads should be recognized for what they are - attack ads. They're in no way subtle -- some of the ads actually talk about Windows Vista. And attack ads are usually effective otherwise they wouldn't be used by so many politicians. Even Barack Obama, whose entire campaign is based on being different uses them. For some reason, negative ads appeal to people. Apple's ads rarely focus on what's right with OS X, instead choosing to amplify everything that's wrong with Windows. If I'm undecided and you keep running ads that point to Obama's celebrity status, I soon start seeing him in a different light. That's why I think Mac ads work at some level. They make you focus on the Windows' negatives. And there's no factcheck.org for these ads.

Mary, you're comparing different quarters to get those values.

Sales in December 2007 were a lot higher than sales in January 2008. Does that mean Apple had some kind of disaster? No. It means people buy consumer goods in December for Christmas and don't buy much of anything in January when their Visa cards are depleted.

But you knew that.

(btw, for those who care to be honest, estimates of Mac market share 2006 were 6%. To match Mary's "They Doubled Share" numbers, they've have to be at 12% for 2008. They're not. Right now it looks like they'll be around 7.5%. That's a good growth rate for two years in their one good market but 12.5% is hardly doubling)

shark

Of course they're attack ads. And I don't even have a problem with that.

What I do have a problem with is that they're deceptive attack ads. They're much closer to Karl Rove's infamouus 2000 push-poll ad that asked, "Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for [opponent x] if the story came out that he had an illegitimate black child?" than "[Opponent x] voted against [proposition y]. He's wrong for us." which is still an attack ad but actually has fact rather than carefully worded inuendo.

Go watch the "Get a Mac" ads and watch how few of them present any facts of any kind. I think you'll be amazed at how consistently fact-free they are.

Oh, and Mac Fans, feel free to tell us which "Get a Mac" ads presented real facts, too. I wouldn't want you to miss out and you can have several minutes of fun watching them all over again.

@Master,

You don't appear interested in a real discussion.  Just pushing things into cartoons and shouting at anyone that you perceive as not having the same ideas that you do.  I find it very interesting that a Microsoft partisan like yourself who clearly has a bone to pick with mac users would try to claim that Apple isn't David.  I'm gonna guess that you've marginalized Apple as irrelevant due to it's low marketshare on more than one occasion.  So which is it?

I'm talking about what I think is the brand effect for the general public of a company with 95% market share and a history of monopoly abuse beating up on their only competitor with less than 5% share.  This is not an attack on Microsoft or Windows.   These things are real issues that they need to consider.  Is it worth it for them to jump in with this against Apple (if they even do that)?  Paul's been advocating it, but I think it's a mistake.  They should keep improving Vista, push hard on the PC vendors to improve their integration and support so that they close that 10 point satisfaction gap with Apple, and keep plugging away at Windows 7.  

I'm trying to discuss the branding strategy as someone that spends his living working on these issues.  That's why I've posted my two posts, which contain no condemnations of Windows.  I think Vista is a good product.  It's a little rough around the edges (those tiny, pixelated taskbar icons look like left overs from Windows 3.1) but I think it's pretty good.  

I just don't think Microsoft needs to do this big push.  I think it's an admission of failure that may do more harm than good if it isn't pitch perfect.  But I'm prepared to say it's awesome if the campaign turns out great.  Crispin is an awesome agency.

@Mike Galos,

Your point about profit margins and bragging would makes sense... if in fact you actually thought it through all the way.  In order to compare profit margins properly between PC companies and Macs, you really need to look at Microsoft's outsized margins on top of the PC company's thinner margins.  Apple doesn't have to pay an OS royalty.  And you've said yourself that software is a much higher margin business.

So there you have it.  Apple's higher margins are thanks to their software being in-house.  Pretty obvious.  As for mac users being "proud" of that, I can only say that it's generally in reaction to apple-bashers that claim the company isn't successful due to it's market share (which is obviously silly).

Speaking of bizarre, how would you describe the behavior of an apple-basher that claims users of the platform with 4% marketshare are "lemmings".  Does that even make the slightest bit of sense at all?

@Shark,

Seriously, direct your complaints about Apple user presence at Paul.  He's the one that devotes up to 50% of his blog to Apple at some points.

@johnpapola

I was going to respond to you earlier. I got distracted!

I think everyone (and I mean everyone... 'around the web) is getting the new Microsoft campaign wrong. Window's fans, here and elsewhere, who don''t like Apple's ads just want to see Microsoft give Apple a good kicking. And the tech press always like to write headlines that pit companies against each other.

I am sure that Microsoft is concerned about Apple's recent successes and equally sure that their execs are pissed with the Get a Mac campaign. However these guys are not stupid (really!) and nor, apparently, is their ad agency. The greater concern is that Apple had the ammunition to blitz Microsoft in the first place and even if the real problems that people experienced with Vista have gone ..... a strong perception remains. That's why we got treated to Mojave!

People around here like to blame Apple or the alleged iCabal (which now appears to include WinCabal types as well) for Microsoft's woes but Microsoft realises that it is responsible for it's own missteps. It has admitted as much.

On an advertising note, the big Ad companies must have been rubbing their hands together when they finally saw the "Wow" campaign and read the first reviews of Vista. It could be a risk but Crispin Porter + Bogusky is a brave choice.

So... ( I am distracting myself now!)..... I don't think this campaign is going to "go after Apple". It might try and counter Apple's bullet points and will try and address the whole Vista perception problem. But better than Mojave. DISCLAIMER. It's a clever agency. There might be some veiled references to Apple but that would be to placate a few Microsoft execs and give the fans a giggle. Joe computer user won't even notice.

Despite the specifics I have mentioned I would expect this campaign to be pretty general. Sure they are going to cover Vista but the campaign hasn't started yet ... and Windows 7 is due early 2010. Try and do a bit of housekeeping but keep an eye on the future.

Generic but effective is not going to be easy. I am curious to see what they come up with.

On Tag-lines and TV stars. I agree "Windows not Walls" sound pretty strong. I like it. Despite your reservations I think it has a lot of mileage. There could be a lot of visual stuff to play with there. And it already throws up a subtle counterpoint to Apple's campaign. Let's face it ... by the time you have seen just a couple of the Apple ads you are already rewriting the line in your head. "Get a Mac ..... not a PC!" It's not so in-your-face but with Microsoft you get "Windows NOT something else"

For those of you complaining about Jerry Seinfeld... what's your beef? I like Jerry. Lots of people do. So what that he's not young and hip anymore. Who says Microsoft is trying to be hip? I am pretty sure that their agency is not even going to try to make Microsoft hip. You never know they might be writing a script that takes advantage of the fact that Seinfield's most popular days are behind him .... now there's an idea....

Guessing over. Let's see what transpires.

Walls fade out ......

Just leaving Windows....

@johnpapola

I was going to respond to you earlier. I got distracted!

I think everyone (and I mean everyone... 'around the web) is getting the new Microsoft campaign wrong. Window's fans, here and elsewhere, who don''t like Apple's ads just want to see Microsoft give Apple a good kicking. And the tech press always like to write headlines that pit companies against each other.

I am sure that Microsoft is concerned about Apple's recent successes and equally sure that their execs are pissed with the Get a Mac campaign. However these guys are not stupid (really!) and nor, apparently, is their ad agency. The greater concern is that Apple had the ammunition to blitz Microsoft in the first place and even if the real problems that people experienced with Vista have gone ..... a strong perception remains. That's why we got treated to Mojave!

People around here like to blame Apple or the alleged iCabal (which now appears to include WinCabal types as well) for Microsoft's woes but Microsoft realises that it is responsible for it's own missteps. It has admitted as much.

On an advertising note, the big Ad companies must have been rubbing their hands together when they finally saw the "Wow" campaign and read the first reviews of Vista. It could be a risk but Crispin Porter + Bogusky is a brave choice.

So... ( I am distracting myself now!)..... I don't think this campaign is going to "go after Apple". It might try and counter Apple's bullet points and will try and address the whole Vista perception problem. But better than Mojave. DISCLAIMER. It's a clever agency. There might be some veiled references to Apple but that would be to placate a few Microsoft execs and give the fans a giggle. Joe computer user won't even notice.

Despite the specifics I have mentioned I would expect this campaign to be pretty general. Sure they are going to cover Vista but the campaign hasn't started yet ... and Windows 7 is due early 2010. Try and do a bit of housekeeping but keep an eye on the future.

Generic but effective is not going to be easy. I am curious to see what they come up with.

On Tag-lines and TV stars. I agree "Windows not Walls" sound pretty strong. I like it. Despite your reservations I think it has a lot of mileage. There could be a lot of visual stuff to play with there. And it already throws up a subtle counterpoint to Apple's campaign. Let's face it ... by the time you have seen just a couple of the Apple ads you are already rewriting the line in your head. "Get a Mac ..... not a PC!" It's not so in-your-face but with Microsoft you get "Windows NOT something else"

For those of you complaining about Jerry Seinfeld... what's your beef? I like Jerry. Lots of people do. So what that he's not young and hip anymore. Who says Microsoft is trying to be hip? I am pretty sure that their agency is not even going to try to make Microsoft hip. You never know they might be writing a script that takes advantage of the fact that Seinfield's most popular days are behind him .... now there's an idea....

Guessing over. Let's see what transpires.

Walls fade out ......

Just leaving Windows....

John

It doesn't matter what anyone elses margins are. The point is, who brags about how much profit they're paying to a vendor?

As for lemmings, I suspect that lemmings make up far less than 4% of animals. That doesn't mean they're not lemmings. (And, actually, I refer to sheep unlike Apple's 1985 superbowl campaign which did equate PC users as lemmings.)

MaryW

Absolutely. I completely agree that the ad campaign will be talking about how Windows give you the freedom to do things you never dreamed of and will not be an attack on Apple. I also suspect it will have some subtle jabs that will be amusing for the insiders but will not come across as picking on Apple.

Despite the anti-Microsoft dreams of some here, it will not be an "apology about Vista" or any such silliness. Vista isn't something like MobileMe or XBox Live last December or the iPhone fire sale price drop. Vista works and offers tons of new capabilities especially with modern hardware. That will be the likely tone.

As for Seinfeld, it's already been made clear that the ads are NOT a single spokesperson campaign. I suspect the flurry we're seeing now is really more Seinfeld's PR people than Microsoft's.

Shark47 - "An inaccuracy here is any opinion that differs from theirs" i.e., mac fans.

Wrong - an inaccuracy is simply that.  something that is not accurate.  

For example, in his latest iphone 3g review, Paul wrote:   "The unjustifiedly positive early reviews {of the original iPhone} from Apple fanatics at the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and USA Today were so out of touch with reality that I was determined to set things right: The iPhone was not the perfect device trumpeted by these guys"

This is inaccurate.  These guys never said the original iPhone was perfect.

Mossberg of the WSJ acknowledged that it had "flaws and feature omissions" including that it "uses a pokey network called EDGE," had "no way to cut, copy, or paste text" and that "Voice call quality was good, but not great."  He also had a whole paragraph entitled "Missing features"  You can find it all here -

solution.allthingsd.com/.../the-iphone-is-breakthrough-handheld-computer

Pogue of the NYT wrote: "As it turns out, much of the hype and some of the criticisms are justified. The iPhone is revolutionary; it’s flawed. It’s substance; it’s style. It does things no phone has ever done before; it lacks features found even on the most basic phones." In a widely reported comment, he said that the virtual keyboard was "frustrating" and not as good for text entry as the Blackberry.  He wrote that the EDGE network was "excruciatingly slow."  He noted a long list of missing features, including no memory-card slot, no chat program, no voice dialing, no third party apps, no MMS photos, and that "The browser can’t handle Java or Flash, which deprives you of millions of Web videos."

Also, "So yes, the iPhone is amazing. But no, it’s not perfect."

www.nytimes.com/.../27pogue.html

Baig of USA Today said the same thing -

"Still, iPhone isn't perfect, or even the most ideal smartphone for every user. It's pricey. It lacks certain features found on some rival devices. AT&T's coverage was spotty in some areas I tested over the past two weeks. Your employer may prevent you from receiving corporate e-mail on the device."  He noted also that EDGE was slow, there was not voice dialing, etc.

www.usatoday.com/.../2007-06-26-iphone-review_N.htm

So, Paul writes a lot of stuff that is simply inaccurate and wrong.  Why?  That's easy - he's incredibly biased against apple and for MS and simply falls over himself criticizing apple while going easy on MS and doing puff piece reviews of their products.

And Microsoft Mikey wins again with 20 posts!!!!

The man cant be stopped, he is a walking or umm, posting man of steal.  Able to leap over facts, quickly change the conversation to support his effort to win at all costs, and twist logic to defeat his Apple enemies every chance he gets.  

He will NOT be out done!!!!!!!!

Man this is entertaining stuff:)  Please keep it up!

@mikegalos

"Mary, you're comparing different quarters to get those values."

What is wrong with you Mike? I told you I wasn't going to trick you and I meant it. The figures are directly from Gartner press releases. I haven't cherry picked the best ones. It's just an unfortunate fact that Mac unit sales have been trending upwards with the result that the latest published figures are the best. Perhaps you would like me to wait until Mac sales plummet (Any day now) and then I would have to agree with you?

I just don't know what figures you would need to satisfy you. I gave you figures showing Apple's market share for a full year and a quarter prior to their ad campaign..... and I gave you the most recent published figures. I didn't list every single quarter since the campaign launched because all they show is that upward trend I mentioned.

You are countering these Gartner stats with figures that you appear to be pulling out from your..... imagination. Where are you getting them from? Got a link?

"Sales in December 2007 were a lot higher than sales in January 2008. Does that mean Apple had some kind of disaster?"

I get the Christmas thing Mike. And you might have a point if it were not for the fact that these figures seem to show that all the PC manufacturers post higher sales in 4Q. In fact in the last couple of years, despite selling a few less units in the quarter after the holidays, Apple's market share has actually risen in that timeframe. Oops! I hope that's nothing to do with their effective ad campaign. ;)

"But you knew that."

Yes I did. But as stated above... in this case,  it doesn't make a jot of difference.

Mike, I am not going to argue about a tenth of a percent here or there but I can't let ridiculous statements like "It's been in the 7% range the whole time" (a period over 2.5 years) go unchallenged. This is Paul's blog and he has meticulously recorded the fall and then the rise of Mac market share for a long time now. I don't understand why Paul can see it but you refuse to.

"for those who care to be honest, estimates of Mac market share 2006 were 6%"

What's the point? The GetaMac campaign started in May of 2006. I thought this was supposed to be a 'before and after' comparison. btw. for those who care to be honest Gartner has 2006 pegged at 4.96% (Mac US) with all the best figures showing up after the start of the campaign. I guess people started getting a Mac straight away.

Mike and MaryW, this discussion is not going anywhere. Please stop arguing about Apple's marketshare. Neither of you is going to convince the other. Why don't you discuss the ages of the Chinese gymnasts instead? You might actually agree with each other on something for a change.

>>offers tons of new capabilities especially with modern hardware. <<

Tell me.

MaryW

A product that sells disprortionately through the retail channel gets a disproportionate bump up in calendar Q4 and a disproportionate bump down in calendar Q1

Comparing Q1 results with anything other than Q1 will show a disproportionate percentile increase.

Of course, it IS possible you didn't cherry pick and just coincidentally picked the low point of the year for your starting sample but why didn't you then pick it for the end sample? And why did you do that on both sets of numbers?

Really. If you want to honestly show things, compare equivalents like 1CQ06 (last before the ads) with 1CQ08.

And, of course, realize that Apple doesn't release US only figures so you really should be comparing worldwide (since the ads did run in the US, Canada, the UK and Japan as well as on the web)

@shark

I agree that' its disappointing that a a thread about Microsoft's immanent advertising campaign should get derailed to Apple's declining Mac sales and Polish people being forced to queue for bread. :)

Hey! It just struck me that if Mr Galos was running the numbers at Microsoft  they wouldn't need to bother with the "Walls" campaign.

21 Posts!!!!!!  Maybe that is worth a Gold Medal???

@mikegalos

Oh Mike. Now look what you have done. I very nearly promised Shark that I would just leave it alone ....... but.... you are so tempting me......

Sorry Shark!

"just coincidentally picked the low point of the year for your starting sample but why didn't you then pick it for the end sample? "

Because I clearly stated : "Apple had doubled it's US market share SINCE the campaign started"  I suspect that, by now, you have checked some of the figures and realise that this is a true statement.

Without wading through a bundle of Gartner releases I picked the 2 most obvious figures. The latest and the 'last before the ads'. That 1Q06 figure btw was virtually the same as the whole of 2005 so I thought that added even more weight.

You can be assured that I will hold myself back from notifying you when Apple has tripled their market share. I am, however not quite sure whether to discuss any possible Windows market share topics using your "It's been in the 50% range the whole time" terminology. I'll get back to you on that!

For the record: I have not stated that Apple's performance outside the US is as strong.

"Obama will pick Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius"

Let me state right now that I called this one wrong and am absolutely delighted to be wrong. Senator Biden is the choice I'd hoped and this is a fantastic surprise.

(See, I admit when I'm wrong)

@Mary the performance outside the US is strong

Actually the increase in sales in Europe and elsewhere is stronger than the increase in the Americas.  (US and everybody else in North and South America)

Americas 38% increase in one year

Europe     47% increase in one year

Elsewere 53% increase in one year

BTW Mike seems to think that Poland is Europe, Orange is Apple, adverts about iLife, OSX stability, Home Networking, security, student sales, Mac out of the box experience, Time Machine, ability to run MS Office, being family friendly, one version for all - say nothing about Macs or OS X and are only Windows attacks - a bit of a weird outlook I would think.

Avro,

as I already said, I expect the percentage gain for Poland in iPhone sales will be huge.

(When you don't sell any, anything is a huge percentage growth)

Seriously, where are you dreaming up these figures (seeing that Apple doesn't release regional sales breakdowns)

@ Mike As usual wrong but not in doubt. ;-)

Scroll down to the bottom column on the page.

blogs.eweek.com/.../apple_q3_2008_by_the_numbers.html

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@Mike,

I can empathize with your Microsoft cheerleading.  You clearly have worked at the company and must know a ton of great people in the organization.  When you personally know people, it's much harder to stomach attacks against the organization you believe in.  I get that.  It's a very human response.

Clearly too smart to be so absolutist.  And yet your views are often so one-sided and strident (and thus easily invalidated by the smallest contradiction) that they just play like partisan cheerleader.

Then again, our universities are packed with brilliant professors who peddle their personal politics to students as absolute truth.  They are also just trying to "educate" as you put it.  Of course, most of these professors outside of the economics department are demonstrably wrong in their opinions on economics... but that never stops someone with the arrogance to assume they are smarter than everyone else.

Of course, the best educators understand that reaching your student/audience is usually best achieved by seeking a common ground of understanding.  But between your ongoing "Nobody innovates but Microsoft" mantra and your paul-like obsession with meaningless worldwide market-share demonstrate that you're not interested in a discussion built on any common ground.  

Microsoft isn't "the only one innovating" in anything.  Neither is Apple or anyone else.  That's bad language that speaks to bias.  They may be the "main innovator".

It's a shame, really, because your clearly have a lot of knowledge and probably have many incites into Microsoft at the ground level.  But your tactics make it hard for anyone not already a Microsoft cheerleader to listen.

This reminds me a book I'm reading right now.  The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb.  For a long time everyone thought that all swans were white...  All evidence suggested that was the case.  The history of known human experience all supported that.  And then someone discovered a single Black Swan.  And that single animal instantly erased all human knowledge and certitude about swans.

Having absolute certitude is a sure fire way to be surprised by a black swan.  We are at our best when we always come from a place of humility for what we do NOT know.  Not arrogance for what we do know.  

The smartest among us should know this, and yet their smart tend to reinforce the opposite behavior.  Socrates had to deal with these people all the time.  

@John

Wrong.

I'd love to be proven wrong on innovation in operating systems. Really. I'd love to.

You see, you miss that. You're so tied to being "the Mac guy" that you don't realize they've given up on competing on the merits in computing. And with them goes the last competition for innovation (since the Linux camp's idea of innovation is "let's do an open source clone of..."

So, again, prove me wrong. But skip the psychoanalysis.

"Let me state right now that I called this one wrong and am absolutely delighted to be wrong. Senator Biden is the choice I'd hoped and this is a fantastic surprise.

(See, I admit when I'm wrong)"

LOL...Mike, even when you're wrong, you're wrong.

It's Biden.

"You have to have a herd for the sheep to join and if there's no herd available, buy one."

Yes, I'm sure Apple's success with the iPhone has everything to do with Orange hiring 20 people to stand in a line in Poland.

Mike, is the "critical thinking" part of your brain still sleeping?

24!!!! HE CANT BE STOPPED!  Oh and I love the faint to the right into the politics.

Not sure how what is has to do with a company that peeked 10 years ago using a comedian that peeked 10 years ago for its new advertising campaign????

"Yes, I'm sure Apple's success with the iPhone has everything to do with Orange hiring 20 people to stand in a line in Poland."

And if Microsoft hired 20 people to do something similar, how much you wanna bet your view would be a total 180?

And I find it interesting that when this story came out, Apple fanatics first said it was a lie, then they changed to 'well, so what?"

"@johnpapola

I can empathize with your Microsoft cheerleading...."

Ok here's a serious question.

Some people here seem to believe that Mike's positive opinions, and others, of Microsoft can just be chalked up to "cheerleading"

It is pretty arrogant, which in my opinion is typical behavior of Apple fanatics, to on one hand call people on defending Microsoft and speaking positively of them just mindless cheerleaders, while saying nothing to those who do the same for Apple.

I want to know John's opinion of people here that talk positively of Apple. The ones that are so identified with that company that they just buy stuff from, that their avatars are variations of the Apple logo?

I want to know are you consistent. Have you've ever posted a comment like you did to Mike to those people?

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The list of unknown Windows abilites may be larger than those of Leopard, since MS did not really advertise them. I just hope they keep it real or at leat supply a disclaimer if 3rd paryt apps are demonstrated, which I think should be done. MS could show a family [maybe Jerry giving the demo] using Vista and each doing something that thier generation would use. Perhaps at the end, Jerry dims the lights with X-10 before they all leave for the beach. Get the mom looking at her schedule, the dad looking at a Map for the trip, the daughters emailing her friends a note, the son making a DVD with video and pics, and maybe all on one computer. Heck, Apple should do the ad if MS doesn't.

It'll be funny seeing Bill Gates in a brown suit and Jerry trying to look cool. :-) I doubt they'll do that.

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@Mike,

You see, your problem is that rather than taking my posts at face value, you filter them through your knowledge of my personal preferences as a Mac user/advocate.  Very little of what I've written in this thread has any pro-Apple rhetoric, except that I claimed they have confidence in their OS.

And yet, you just dismiss me as "the mac guy".  Real discussion can't function with this approach.  If you're not able to read my feedback on face value and uninterested in philosophy of thought... I have very little hope of constructive dialog with you.

I tried with our little back and forth about Apple's innovation in graphics subsystems as a rebuttal to your "nobody innovates in the OS but MS" and you trivialized my points.  For having so much knowledge, you don't have much respect for the precision of your language.   There's an infinite difference between your statements of absolution and something with intellectual honesty like: "Microsoft is the primary innovator in OS technology" or even "almost all the innovation in the OS is now done by Microsoft".

Both of those statements could be argued effectively.  But you choose the absolute phrasing repeatedly.  This is just politics and partisan sparing.  Not real discussion built on any level of mutual respect.  You make many many good points. But your broad proclamations are simply arrogant and your "I've lived it" posturing is self-aggrandizing.  Neither makes discussion with you reasonable.

Maybe I should post under another name and see if your bias changes.  That'd be an interesting experiment.  It is very telling that "mathue" came to this windows thread and didn't treat me like a mac fanboy.  He's clearly new to the site and had objectivity.

As for this "loving paying high margins" attack... let me try to clarify a bit further.  If the discussion is about Apple's "success" or their viability, than touting their profit margins is a very reasonable thing to do.  Dell or HP would have much higher margins on their PCs if they could keep the money they pay Microsoft for their OS license.  And as you know, that software license is almost entirely profit.  It's not like there's a physical costs that come with margin sales of Windows.  So that's my point.  Apple gets higher margins in part because they are selling their own operating system along with their computers and clearly pricing the value of the OS into the equation.  

If they strictly competed on price and sought to make nothing from the value of OSX, they'd possibly be able to beat the other PC makers on price.  But that would be foolish business.  Capitalism is about maximizing your profit against competitive forces.  This is why Dell is very consciously trying to move toward higher margin products that differentiate with design (the hybrids) or niche audiences (the alienware purchase and XPS line).

Now, if an Apple fan is touting the margins of Apple products in a discuss of why they buy a mac... I agree that that is idiotic and sycophantic.  I can't imagine why anyone would seek high margins as a SELLING POINT for a purchasing decision.  that's your point and it's fair.  But by ignoring the context of the discussion, your point is intentionally reductionist to the point of questionable intellectual honesty.

But then... I'm "the mac guy" so you should just ignore every word.  

@Mary,

Agreed.  Microsoft has admitted on many fronts that their problems with Vista's image are largely their own fault.  No question.  Like I said, I think that Gates has been honest and frankly humble.

Maybe I'm reading an apple-centric slant to "Windows not Walls" where there is none.  Consider it a bias of the context.  Paul's been calling for a "direct response" and Microsoft has said they intent to "respond" to Apple.  So forgive me if I take them at their word regarding the motivating elements behind the line.

@Master,

I think some of the Apple fans on this site are just as guilty of partisan hackery as Waethorn or the worst of Mike's comments.  Mike's not a hack. He's a smart guy.  But see above for my thoughts on his discourse.  Lotsamystuff and Ocean both troll on occasions and in ways that I think aren't good or constructive.  I have called people out for bringing irrelevant mac fanboy trolling into a discussion before.

I don't consider "cheerleading" to be entirely pejorative.  But when Mike says that Microsoft is the only innovator in OS technology... that's precisely what he's doing.  He's using dishonest hyperbole to make his point.  That's cheerleading.  He isn't solely a blind "cheerleader".  He's a smart guy with lots of info backing his positions.  But his rhetoric is a problem.  Again, see above.

Good post, john!

So who buys Windows more, the PC makers or Consumers to upgrade or make build a PC? This is relevent for target audience. Dell, Leveno and others do not need to be targeted as they must buy the license, and in fact, the PC builders themselves market for Microsoft and themselves. [Gateway or Dell used Mikael Fox for a while]. How big is the market for Windows directly to the consumer? I am excluding Office which obviously  sells as well, but to Macs and PC's, so there not much advantage to discriminate, which may even be  a little detrimental. After all Office on both platforms is very similar.

John

You missed the point again.

I don't care what Apple's profit margins are.

What I do find bizarre is that Apple fans are proud of how high Apple's profit margins are.

Who else but an Apple fan would actually effectively say, "One of the reasons I like Apple is they make so much more money off of me than their competitors would"?

If you make zero profit, you cannot invest in R&D then you cannot innovate.  I consider my Macs well worth the price I pay and I do not begrudge Apple a profit on the deal.  This is not to say that I don't get the best deal I can.

@DRWAM This is clearly aimed at Consumers not OEMs.  Microsoft doesn't make most of its money on consumers, but it obviously is concerned that the popularity of Macs might spill over to Enterprise.  Otherwise they would save the $300 million.

Avro

Saying "Apple spent x on R&D last year" would be a perfectly rational thing to brag or complain about (depending on how big or small x is)

Saying "Apple's profit margin was higher than any of their competitors' last year" is the equivalent of bragging about how proud you are of ExxonMobil when you pay $100 to fill your car at their gas station.

"Saying "Apple's profit margin was higher than any of their competitors' last year" is the equivalent of bragging about how proud you are of ExxonMobil when you pay $100 to fill your car at their gas station."

Good point.

Blame Exxon for the high price of oil (which they technically do not set) and praise Apple for its high margins (which they do control to a great extent).

cesjr brought up product reviews earlier. Most reviewers focus on both the negatives and the positives of a product. It's the amount the choose to focus on the positives or the negatives that indicates their bias. I can write pages and pages about everything I dislike about the iPhone and end the review with one paragraph about all the things I like about it. Someone who hates the iPhone will claim I'm unbiased because I did mentioned the positives. Someone who likes it will hate my review.

When Pogue, Mossberg, and others review Windows, they start off by assuming that you're either already a Mac user or you're an idiot not to want to switch and go from there. Paul, on the other hand, looks at it from a Windows XP user's perspective. On the other hand, Paul's Mac reviews are not meant for Mac users, but for Windows users.

I think it's a shame that when over 90% of the world uses Windows, most reviews in mainstream newspapers are written for an OS X user.  

"Blame Exxon for the high price of oil (which they technically do not set) and praise Apple for its high margins (which they do control to a great extent)."

Or you could point out that between 2003 and 2007, Exxon paid $64.7 billion in U.S. taxes, exceeding its after-tax U.S. earnings by more than $19 billion.

But that would be an "inconvenient truth", no?

shark

VERY OT:

"Blame Exxon for the high price of oil (which they technically do not set) "

Even ignoring the complexities of the geopolitical influences that ExxonMobil may have, if they only passed on increased costs beyond their control you'd be right about them not setting the price. If that were true, their sales and costs would have gone up but profits would have been flat.

But they didn't just pass along cost increases, hence the increase in profits. And that was in their control.

@Sharky,

Thank you very much.  This is the real me.  As verbose as ever, but rational and conciliatory.  I'm done with mudslinging and baiting people.  It's a poor representation of my character.

@Mike,

With all due respect, the #1 problem with this line of discussion you've setup and are perpetuating in this thread (other than the fact that it is WAY off topic, and thus inherently a little trollish) is that it is an argument built on a strawman.  I'd say it's the quintessential strawman tactic.  

Here's a very good definition from wikipedia:

"A straw man argument is an informal fallacy based on misrepresentation of an opponent's position.[1] To "set up a straw man" or "set up a straw man argument" is to describe a position that superficially resembles an opponent's actual view but is easier to refute, then attribute that position to the opponent (for example, deliberately overstating the opponent's position)."

This argument truly fits the bill.  I'm not aware of anyone that actually buys macs because they have higher profit margins or claims that it's a benefit to the platform.  I certainly know mac users who'd like to see Apple bring their prices down.

So onus is on you to demonstrate who precisely has claimed they love that Apple has higher margins than other computer makers?  Who?  In what context are they allegedly celebrating these margins?  Is it a discussion about Apple being successful?  Is it a discussion about the corporate leadership and strategy of Steve Jobs?  Is it yet another debate about the value of market share?

There are a number of contexts in which celebrating Apple's margins would be expected and more than reasonable.  Most of the above count.  Any discussion of the company as a matter of business success would count.

So stripping away the context of the argument isn't honest discussion.  But then, you're essentially arguing with nobody, because nobody has made this alleged claim in this thread.  Nobody, of course, except the strawman.

I find your comparison to Exxon Mobil to be a kind of effort at guilt by association, though I understand that it makes the point and would appear in line with your economic leftism.  Just remember that if we were to extract "windfall profits" taxes, Microsoft should come before the Big Oil based on any rational discussion of such a tax punishment given their margins and absolute profits.   But then, I'd argue that there is no rational discussion of windfall profits taxes... but I digress. ;)

So, once again, I ask you to apply that intellect of yours to some fuller discussion.  Expand your argument and don't hide behind strawmen.  There's more than enough real things to discuss in this world.  

Again, read the Wharton paper on market share, and try Taleb's "The Black Swan" while you're at it.  Generalizing from the specific is the height of both arrogance and ignorance.

"Just remember that if we were to extract "windfall profits" taxes, Microsoft should come before the Big Oil based on any rational discussion of such a tax punishment given their margins and absolute profits."

Unless you're an employee or a shareholder, I don't see why one should be proud of MS's revenues.

O/T

money.cnn.com/.../index.htm

WAY WAY OT (but certainly more interesting):

Any discussion of oil prices that doesn't take into account the value of the dollar is not a complete discussion (I'm being kind here).  Never mind that the prices have been falling drastically the past month.  It seems likely that this has been a commodities bubble driven by the flight from financials and housing and reinforced by the weak dollar and the the group-think hype about Chinese and India demand.  I'm gonna just guess that energy demand from China and India hasn't dropped off by 20% this month.  Just a guess.

How else could we explain this drop during a conflict along a major oil pipeline in Georgia when previous issues with far less important pipelines have cause large spikes in the price?

Given that markets build their current price based on expectations for the future, it's possible that the price declines are related in part to what seems like an inevitable move to open off-shore drilling.  It certainly correlates to that, as well as the obvious dollar strengthening, which seems related to the slowdown in the Eurozone economy.

...but what the hell do I know?

@Shark,

"Unless you're an employee or a shareholder, I don't see why one should be proud of MS's revenues."

agreed.  Why be proud of any company's success, unless it has a tangible benefit for yourself or the people you know.  Many Apple fans are happy about Apple's success now because they remember the company's flirtation with death in the mid nineties and want to see their computing platform survive.  That's certainly my reason for being happy about Apple's financial success, now that I don't own shares.

I do think they should do everything they can to push down prices for maximum marketshare while avoiding full-blown commodity pricing.  Price wars are great for consumers... unless they kill the companies involved.  Again, the Wharton marketshare paper has many many examples of that kind of market share chasing death spiral.

@johnpapola and anyone who made it trhough his false "straw man" post...

Here's one example from this thread that you could have found by actually reading the thread. And you'll note that I was NOT the one that brought up Apple profitability as a bragging point and thus changed the topic.

Now, care to retract the condescending "straw man" diatribe?

-----------------

lotsamystuff said:

"Apple does really, really badly everywhere except the US"

Define "badly". The last I looked, Apple was insanely profitable. After all, they're  in business to make money, not satisfy the WinJihadists of the world. The former is something they do very well, the latter is impossible unless you have the Microsoft Windows Logo tattooed on your backside.

Perhaps Waethorn can tell us if "mikegalos" does.

Back on topic:

www.fool.com/.../fool-video-does-microsoft-plus-seinfeld-equal-appl.aspx

Great quote, though I'm not sure I agree:

"I've got a great slogan for Microsoft, it's called 'FOCUS, NOT FOCUS GROUP'"

He doesn't like "Windows not Walls".  Interesting.  Not sure I agree.

Mike: You said Apple did "badly" everywhere except the U.S.

I'm simply asking for clarification of what you mean by "badly". In no way did I mean to misrepresent your opinion. There's no straw man here. I don't think any reasonable person can look at the performance of Apple as a company and conclude they're doing "badly", but perhaps we disagree. Or perhaps you're just unreasonable. I can live with either outcome.

O/T

Oil companies' margins are not as high as most people think they are. I think many tech companies have higher margins. Moreover, while politicians like to blame oil companies for the recent rise in gas prices, the price of crude oil is set at the NY Mercantile Exchange. Oil futures are traded just like stocks and prices depend on a lot of factors like the falling dollar, global availability, sentiments about Iran, etc. Crude oil didn't touch $150 per barrel because oil companies wanted to increase profits and it didn't fall to $114 a barrel because their conscience intervened.

Just like a suspension of the gas tax, proposed by McCain would have proved useless, I think a windfall profit tax on oil companies is just politicians exploiting the situation for their benefit.

Here's something that might help: money.cnn.com/.../index.htm

"Senator Biden is the choice I'd hoped and this is a fantastic surprise."

On that we can absolutely agree. Now if they'd just flip the ticket at the convention, all would be right with the world.

OT: sharky, you're absolutely right. Here's another good article:

online.wsj.com/.../SB121780636275808495.html

Key takeaways:

"Between 2003 and 2007, Exxon paid $64.7 billion in U.S. taxes, exceeding its after-tax U.S. earnings by more than $19 billion."

"In a tax bill on oil earlier this summer, no fewer than 51 Senators voted to impose a 25% windfall tax on a U.S.-based oil company whose profits grew by more than 10% in a single year and wasn't investing enough in "renewable" energy. This suggests that a windfall is defined by profits growing too fast. No one knows where that 10% came from, besides political convenience. But if 10% is the new standard, the tech industry is going to have to rethink its growth arc. So will LG, the electronics company, which saw its profits grow by 505% in 2007. Abbott Laboratories hit 110%."

"Or consider Google, which earned a mere $4.2 billion but at a whopping 25.3% margin. Google earns far more from each of its sales dollars than does Exxon..."

"In other words, a windfall is nothing more than a profit earned by a business that some politician dislikes. And a tax on that profit is merely a form of politically motivated expropriation."

Lotsa

What I mean by doing badly is almost summed up by the concept of gravitas.

A little background. Any market typically has three key players.

First is the market leader who has the role of creating stability in the market and providing a "safe" choice. This company typically won't be the most technogically advanced, they won't be pushing things forward, their big advantage is that they are a known commodity and there is no risk with choosing them. Their goal is to maintain their position as the top seller.

A second player has role of being the force that keeps the top player from stagnating. They are still mainstream but, being #2, they "try harder". They will be the force that drives the product niche forward slowly and keeps the market leader on their toes. They won't do wild risks because they want to keep a reputation as the alternate choice. Their goal is to become the logical new top player if the leader falters.

The third player is typically significantly smaller than the other two and this role isn't as stable. Many companies may alternate being the company in this role. This player is the one taking the bold risks. Their goal is to push the envelope and hope that one of the bold risks will shift the landscape enough for them to move to the top in a new world.

Now, on to answering the question.

In order to be in either of the top two roles, you need enough share, enough sales and enough mindshare to be able to influence the direction of the existing market.

In the US, Apple barely has sufficient sales to have some influence in the personal computer market. Not enough to do the second role through actual innovation but with the advertising and fan driven mindshare, enough to do some of that role. A key part of the resentment against Apple is that they do not innovate to drive the market and instead focus on intangibles that do nothing to improve the product ecosystem.

Outside the US, however, neither sales nor innovation nor mindshare has been sufficient for Apple to be taken seriously as a #2 alternative.

The real problem is that Apple has stopped bothering to make Macintosh a #2 in the personal computer market. What they've done instead is to redefine the world into a market for personal computers (where they don't really compete) and a market for Macintosh (where they have a 100% monopoly). In this way, rather than be #2 in a huge pond, they've decided it's easier to be #1 in their own pond and thus they've become their own stagnant monopoly.

This leaves the industry with nobody pushing Microsoft to improve or innovate and the fact that they do actually violates what you'd expect from a market leader role who typically only does what's needed to keep #2 from pushing them out of the top position.

I'm sorry Mike but you really don't understand the idea.

You started this with one of your classic, absolutist (yet qualitative) judgements:

"Apple does really, really badly everywhere except the US"

This statement is not only demonstrably false, it's built on undisclosed assumptions.  What performance metric are you measuring?  Why? It's probably safe to assume market share.  How do you know Apple's market share in every country outside the US?  Where are you getting that figure?

One need only show a single country that isn't the US in which Apple doesn't do "really, really badly" to prove that your statement is at best hyperbole and at worst an outright lie.  The difference of course is a matter of your knowledge of the statement's accuracy.

Apple's share in Australia for the second quarter of 2008 was 5.3%, up from 3.8% in the second quarter of 2007.  Is that "really, really bad"? If you think so, why?

The honest way for you to phrase your statement would be "Apple's marketshare outside the US is lower per country than it's share in the US".  That's honest and objective.  "Really, really badly everywhere except the US" is neither.

Plus, Lotsamystuff was not claiming that he buys Apple computers in order to fill Apple's coffers, or because they have higher margins.  He wasn't even celebrating higher margins as you are claiming here.  He was simply pointing out that Apple is profitable.

So this "example" isn't an example at all for your argument.  It is, however, yet another example of how you use hyperbole and absolute language like "always" and "nobody" and "everywhere".

You sir, truly need to read The Black Swan.

Since when is it reasonable to attribute the views of a tiny anecdotal minority to everyone in the group?

Here's your response to lotsa, again:

"Mac fans really do amaze me sometimes. Where else can you have people bragging about the exceptionally high profit margins of a company they buy from?  What kind of Stockholm Syndrome does it take to say, "The company I buy from takes more of my money than the company you buy from" and be proud of it.  To top it off, they simultaneously talk about how the stories of Apple products being overpriced are lies."

Come one, Mike.  Here you are, making a hyperbolic and argumentative claim.  Essentially baiting.  Then lotsa comes back (though not very effectively, as he doesn't get specific) to point out their profitability.  

And what do you do next?  You extrapolate that to all mac fans.  Not reasonable discussion.  I could say "why do all PC lovers obsess over worldwide market share even though everyone with any braincells knows it's meaningless".  But most PC users don't care and I can make no assumptions about what "everyone" knows.  

And even if my experience of apple-bashers supports that statement, I have not come in contact with every apple-basher on earth (or even 1% of them).  So I'd be jumping to major conclusions.  I've decided I'm not going to play that game anymore (though I admit that I have in the past).

Why do you resort to this approach?  What is it gaining you?  Certainly not credibility or entrance into a kinder discussion.

@Sharky & lotsa,

Great post regarding the oil and taxes.  Dead on.  Politicians use dishonesty on both sides to pander while ignoring reality, whether it's nutty gas tax gimmicks or blatantly dishonest saber rattling about NAFTA and free trade while ignoring the fact that these agreement eliminate tariffs on our goods that often are asymmetrical.  

they're all the same: doing and saying whatever it takes to get elected.  What's worse than that?  People that use those tactics but AREN'T running for office.  What's their excuse?  Are they just dishonest?  Or is "winning" an online debate so important to them that being honest comes second? And can you really claim victory in an online debate when you're not honest?  Ah... the questions of life!

Actually Apple sells more than half its Macs outside of North and South America - let alone just the US.  

It's simply a fact.

As I mentioned before in new sales it is dominating the education market in Western Europe, Australia and New Zealand.  

Mac market share is even higher in Canada than the US.

So its time to cut the BS about Apple doing poorly outside the US.  Every time I see someone post that you know they haven't foggiest notion of what is going on.

Be interesting to find out what is causing their reality distortion.  I think some of them could not even find Europe (maybe Canada too) on a map.

Even with record sales, production limitations would still hardly make a dent in market share. There is just so much Windows OS volume that global catch up to a much higher market share is not possible at the current production and even sales rate. Consumer marketing for Vista may not even change too many opinions about it as you just can't tell somebody to change their mind, many must experience it. New and improved just gets ignored on store shelves and people reach for the known product as the words are pretty meaningless. It makes you wonder if paying Seinfeld would actually be worth it. It certainly won't hurt to try as MS has got plenty of cash.

@Mike,

With all due respect, your effort to "educate" us on the workings of "any market" is problematic on many many front.  And it's very arrogant.  You don't even qualify this "lesson" with something like "I have a theory..." or "I believe".  Nope.  Just stated as fact.  Mike's math.  Mike's principles of markets.

And, of course, you use absolute terms.

The reality is that market dynamics vary so wildly that any rule of thumb, such as the one you are proposing here, is at best an approximation from what has already been observed (and thus subject to demolition by a change that could happen any day) and at worst a wild guess.  Neither is predictive of the future in one market, nor applicable to all markets.

But again, your rhetorical hubris seems to prevent you from admitting how much you don't know.  Honestly, this theory of yours is so full of holes and bad analysis I don't know where to start.  Seriously, this post is a travesty of anecdote presented as logic and fact.

First, I'm going to assume that this whole "theory" was intended to conclude by saying "so really, really badly means you are in group #3 and not even trying".  Wasn't that the point?  You made this over-the-top statement about Apple doing really, really badly everywhere but the US and now you are trying to justify that with a re-imagining of market dynamics.

Face it.  Your "really, really bad" statement was just an opinionated slam at apple with no real foundation in markets or anything else.  And it had nothing to do with Apple not pushing the envelope outside the US.  It had to do with Apple having lower market share outside the US.

Now... as far as these three players you've constructed... and their application to "any market".  That's bunk.  Commodity markets tend to have many players all competing on little other than price.  Think oil, food, and... well PCs!  Your construct ignores that... and yet... it is the model for the PC market.  Weird right?  Yep.  Dell, HP, Acer, Lenovo, Toshiba, Sony and, yes, Apple all compete in a market that is largely a commodity.  Among the Windows PC vendors, it's truly commodity dynamics.  This is why a firm like Dell whose only innovation of direct sales and superior supply chain efficiency could rise to the top.

So, that destroys the application of your 3-player construct to the PC market.

Now, the computer OS market is essentially a monopoly... and one with deeply recursive network effects thanks to the high barrier to entry that learning new software development tools creates.

Digging into why Microsoft has no major competition requires far too much re-litigating of the US vs. Microsoft and I'm neither prepared nor interested in that.

"The real problem is that Apple has stopped bothering to make Macintosh a #2 in the personal computer market."

What are you talking about, mike?  

They are actually the #3 computer maker in the US right now.  They're lower worldwide, but I'd hardly say that constitutes not competing hard.

What they've done instead is to redefine the world into a market for personal computers (where they don't really compete) and a market for Macintosh (where they have a 100% monopoly). In this way, rather than be #2 in a huge pond, they've decided it's easier to be #1 in their own pond and thus they've become their own stagnant monopoly."

This is a completely arbitrary and bizarre line of thought.  The mac market is not a separate computer market.  The same people that buy Macs could just as easily choose Windows PCs.  They compete in the same market.  Period.  So what we have here is a tendency to compare Apple to other PC makers when it suits your argument on price and to compare them to Microsoft when it suits your argument about relevance, influence and sustainability.  You complain about Apple's high profits compared to the Dell's of the world, even though Microsoft's margins are double Apple's, yet compare their market share not to Dell but to Microsoft.  

These kind of convenient mode switches are indicative of an argument driven by ideology instead of the honest pursuit of the truth.  Your mind is made up and you don't appear to mind a little intellectual dishonesty if it helps you "win" the debate.

Sure, there is, in fact, a distinctly separate Mac software market... as there is for Linux, Unix, the iPhone, Symbian, Blackberry and every other distinct operating system... but there's only one PC market...

or wait.. no there isn't.  There's many many PC markets.  There's the consumer market.  There's the info worker enterprise market.  There's the content creation market.  There's the vertical markets like manufacturing and medicine.  In some Apple comes up big with double digit share.  In others, they are nonexistent.

What you are doing is assuming that the only way to really "compete" with Microsoft is to license your OS.  That's a big assumption and one that's ideological rather than practical.  Linux has made less progress against Windows than the Mac OSX is desktops despite being a blatant rip-off of Windows, being broadly licensed and being FREE.

You clearly reject the value proposition (and core philosophy) of Apple which is the tight integration of hardware and software that comes from one company making the whole widget.  You seem to think there is no place for that approach.  And yet, it is an approach that has proven very sustainable for Apple and allowed them to survive and thrive where every other operating system that isn't windows has failed (even and especially desktop linux).  Hell, Apple has outlived IBM's PC division.

I do have a point that can be short.

Mike, you mistake your own opinions as fact and state them as such.  This is not a pleasant quality of your discourse.

Not every statement needs qualifications and equivocations, but certainly some of yours require them.

you bunch of sad fecks. honestly.

Gorath, did you spell that wrong?

@gorath,

This is what happens when I'm stuck in the house waiting for my 3 year old to wake from his nap before I can go back to the beach.  Is this more sad than people wasting work weeks on fantasy football and betting real money?  I think not.

Christ on a casserole!!  I cant believe this is still going on????  I could not agree more with gorath.

Mike you got stamina brother, crazy blog posting stamina.  You are like the "King Leonidas" of the winsupersite, being attacked from all sides in the desperate attempt to hold of the iCabal or whatever you call it......SPARTANS!!!!!!  

Just throw some grecian formula in that beard and you will be a shoe in for lead role in 300 - II "The fall of Microsoft":)

Oh and gorath being a big fan of BSG, I prefer the term FRAK, on in this case FRAKS.  Or is it Fraq?  Hmmm maybe they have a script online I could check out????  Don't want to get my BSG lore wrong in a blog forum, might get called to the carpet for that.

Guys, Feck comes from the Father Ted TV series.  It is the way the Irish pronunciation of a certain word is heard by English ears, so Gorath who lives on the same side of the pond as I do is correct in writing it this way.  It is considered to be on a more polite level than the way we pronounce it in English.  Sort of the difference between darn and dam*.

@Gorath

"Apple has retained its position as Europe's number one PC manufacturer to education markets, according to research firm Gartner, and has now held the position for eight successive quarters."

www.pcadvisor.co.uk/.../index.cfm

Lindy, LIAR! 'FRAK' started at Farscape first, NOT BSG. WRONG!!!!

:)

DRWAM,

Newbie!

Frack is from the REAL Battlestar Galactica from 1978.

(From Wikipedia - always a source of accurate data!)

Expletives — frack (interjection), felgercarb (noun)

Avro, that article contradicts itself.

"Apple is also the leading PC manufacturer in the UK - eclipsing Dell - for laptops and now also desktops"

then later..

"Apple is now the fifth biggest PC maker in the UK. "

I still maintain that I've yet to see this trend of Apples taking over in schools.

and yes, feck is from Father Ted.

"In the US, Apple barely has sufficient sales to have some influence in the personal computer market. Not enough to do the second role through actual innovation but with the advertising and fan driven mindshare, enough to do some of that role. A key part of the resentment against Apple is that they do not innovate to drive the market and instead focus on intangibles that do nothing to improve the product ecosystem."

You really cannot be serious. Can you? Apple is virtually unique in that their influence goes far beyond their meager market share (in personal computing, at least).

But to state that they "do not innovate to drive the market" and "do nothing to improve the product ecosystem" is just silliness--or wishful WinJihadist thinking.

My apologies to all, esp Lindy. BSG [original] was too campy for my tastes back in it's original run. I was definitely a Trekker. Yep, I watched the original series, first run! Mike, that was tough for me to admit as now you now my real age range!

@lotsamystuff,

Clearly Apple's had little to no impact in the areas of computer hardware design (and industrial design in general).  Clearly the current move towards stylish PCs has nothing to do with Apple's success.

Clearly the iMac didn't spark a copy-cat revolution across devices from PCs to Toasters.  Clearly Apple's all-in-ones have played no role in the design of the Dell XPS One, the HP and Gateway all-in-ones. Clearly, the Titanium powerbook's widescreen display had no impact on the move to wide-screen displays in laptops.  On a side, note... clearly the iPod and iPhone have had little to no impact on the industry and design decisions in the media player and smart phone markets.

Or.. wait... maybe the opposite of everything I just wrote is true.  Duh.

Any honest and objective observer of the PC market must admit that Apple has had a very significant impact on the industry.  Mike wants to trivialize it because he's trying to pretend that Apple isn't a computer hardware maker.  But that's not reasonable or honest.  Apple's impact has been an order of magnitude in excess of their market share and Paul's obsession with them on his "supersite for windows" is just one tiny example of that.

Come on, Mike.  Give up the hyperbole.  It destroys your credibility.  Just as it makes you look biased to be marginalizing the graphics subsystem innovation by Apple in an era in which content creation and viewing is driving consumer computing.  Admit where we have good points, Mike.  I know you have plenty of good points too.  Give up your black-and-white world.

Give it up, Mike. This is not an argument you're going to win. You have a lot of intelligent things to say about Microsoft and the industry in general, but when you make such comments about Apple's marketshare and its contribution, it hurts your credibility and  you come off looking like Lindy.

I hate to agree with lotsa, but I think he's right about this one. :-)

@ Gorath

The article was talking about being Number 1 in Education and Number 5 Overall.

Education

"Statistically, Apple sold 19.2 percent of all computers sold in the European education sector - including servers. Apple is also the leading PC manufacturer in the UK - eclipsing Dell - for laptops and now also desktops, holding 17.3 percent of UK education market share, the analysts said."

From what I see in the schools and universities in England this figure very much rings true.

Overall

"In the UK, Apple shifted 119,000 Macs (this quarter), giving the company a 4.3 percent grip on the overall computer market, the analyst's revealed. That's up from 85,000 Mac sales last year, giving Apple respectable growth of 40 percent - almost double that of the wider PC industry. Apple is now the fifth biggest PC maker in the UK."

The actual figures for the UK are.

Apple market share 4.3%

Apple consumer market share 9%

These are expected to double in the next 2 years.

Which? magazine (Our version of Consumer Reports) has rated the MacBook and MacBook Pro as the 2 best laptops in the UK

We have 3 monthly Mac magazines (MacFormat, MacWorld, and iCreate) and MacUser publishes every 2 weeks.  MacWorld UK is the largest circulation Mac magazine in the world.

We have more Apple Stores than anywhere outside the US and more are opening all the time.  I could hardly breathe in the one in Cambridge last month due to the crowds.

Perhaps most telling of all when I took advantage of my Microsoft's Home User program with my employer ( £17.50 about $35 for MS Office) the Microsoft sales rep said 'Sir, will that be 2007 for Windows or 2008 for Mac?'.  Naturally it was 2008. :-)

So when Mike says Apple does "badly" outside the US it really means does "rather well" as normal people understand it.

He probably thinks that people line up for Zunes and Windows Mobile Phones ;-)

Virtual Reality is marvellous!!

@shark:  "I hate to agree with lotsa, but I think he's right about this one. :-)"

I always knew this day would come, Sharky. FWIW, I even agree with you re: Mike!

Who knew?

"Perhaps most telling of all when I took advantage of my Microsoft's Home User program with my employer ( £17.50 about $35 for MS Office) the Microsoft sales rep said 'Sir, will that be 2007 for Windows or 2008 for Mac?'.  Naturally it was 2008. :-)"

Wow! It is indeed telling. I got mine for $20 in the US through the same program. That's almost half the price.

We have a 17.5% tax here that is included in all prices, but that would only come out to $23.50 so you definitely got the better deal.:-((

Both Windows and Mac Office prices are the same and Microsoft allows you to buy one of each so you could have 2007 on the Windows partition of your Mac and 2008 on the OS X partition.

But avro, the fact that they beat Dell doesn't mean that they beat all the other manufacturers together. Remember that a lot of people make computers.

Some smaller schools round here also use local firms, as they give good discounts to local education authorities and so on.

I'm not doubting that apple are doing well, or growing, or that they make fine machines. But my experience of computers being used in education must differ wildly to yours.

As for the offer on office being telling, what is it telling exactly? that the guy who was dealing with you knew that office was available for both windows and OSX? How is that significant in any way?

@gorath

Correct.  Apple is Number 1 in sales over Dell, HP and the others.  It is the market leader.  Your comment that some schools are using a few "shop built specials" does not change the manufacturers number.  I work all over the UK and have never seen a "shop built special" in a school.  They just cannot give the discounts that Apple, Dell and HP can.

BTW Apple has 55% of the Swiss education market.

The number also refers to new sales over the last 8 quarters.  Some schools are using very old computers bought many years ago.  You cannot base national conclusions on what your local school is using.

My comment on it being "telling' referred to Mike's posts.  If Apple was a non-starter in the market Europe , Microsoft would not even stock Office 2008 for what amounts to an Enterprise connected sale.

Let the records show that tayme got owned by both Mike & Mary (moreso Mary)

Avro, please don't misunderstand, I'm not strictly disagreeing with you, I'm just stating that my personal experience seems to differ to yours.

And there are definitely schools in rural areas that use local firms. These may actually be quite large firms, but still nowhere on the scale of HP or Dell.

If I may interject here based upon my personal experience. Almost all of the local school districts in Dallas/Fort Worth area, use Windows machines. Mac orders make less than 1 percent of PC orders for Dallas, Irving, Carrollton/Farmers Branch, Plano, Lewisville, and other districts in the area. This is an area of over 6 million people, where their kids aren't using Macs on a regular basis. The main vendors are HP and Dell.

subzero

Apple used to have absolute dominence in the K-12 market back in the heyday of the Apple ][ and for several years after while the rest of the world had moved on from 8 bit processors. That ended a long time ago but it's still a pretty common folklore that schools that used Apple ][ moved en masse to Mac. While some did, most went to MS-DOS and later Windows.

Sub, I thought you were from Vulcan?

I remember when I went to highschool, they were still using Acorn Archimedes, and, oddly, BBC micros.

There is a Vulcan compound in every major city on Earth including Berlin and Canberra. I think the Dallas consulate is on Star Trek Lane off Apollo and east of Jupiter Road.

Very logical because the local Fry's Electronics is between Jupiter Road and Northwest Highway. No subspace transmitter's available yet.

When is everyone around here going to realize this simple truth:

Anecdotal  "data"  (negative)  about Apple= Absolute, irrefutable, undeniable proof that Apple is of no importance.

After all Apple innovates nothing and everyone should thank Microsoft that they do...

Happens all the time when people use words such as "always", "everyone", and "never".

Dude, let me change what you said and see if it has the same effect.

"Anecdotal  "data"  (positive)  about Apple= Absolute, irrefutable, undeniable proof that Apple is of the grandest importance.

After all "M$" innovates nothing and everyone should thank Apple that they do... "

It goes both ways.

Dip- I have no issue with things that MS has actually created.

What is laughable is certain folks (read Mike) that content that Apple hasn't created anything in years and that Microsoft's continued "innovation" is a "gift" to the PC industry.

@Dude - I am with you on that...I have made the same point before about words like that. I was taught that at a very early age...I guess that some others weren't.

--tayme

Dude, Dipsh,

You're both right, of course.  For every anecdote, there's an equal but opposite anecdote.  What strikes me as funny is that both sides of these silly discussions use exactly the same logic to "debunk" the arguments of the other side, seemingly blissfully unaware of the symmetry of it all.

One man's obvious truth is another man's FUD.  And vice versa.

Dude1313

I've generally found that when people issue non-denial denials like saying how outraged they are or how laughable a statement is but don't actually say why it's wrong, you've generally spoken a truth they both don't want to admit and secretly know is true.

For the record, the two statements I've made that you've mischaracterised rather than answer are:

Microsoft, given their dominent position in the market and pressure from change averse corporate customers, should be the least likely operating system vendor to be innovating, yet they're the primary innovator in PC operating systems.

OS X is stagnant and Apple has offered almost no innovation in PC operating systems in the seven and a half years since 10.0 shipped.

So, perhaps you can stop laughing long enough to tell us some of the great innovations in PC operating systems that have been introduced by Apple in OS X.

Here's a start for you, go to the Apple site and show us which of those "300+ New Features" in 10.5 weren't just a case of "Cupertino, start your photocopiers". Here's the URL to save you some time: www.apple.com/.../300.html

Don't forget, we're talking about OS innovations. You know, things that improve the state of the art of operating systems and not  things like "Empty the Trash from the Trash itself with the Empty Trash button" or enhancements to the UI of bundled applicatons.

Still laughing?

Oh, and just as an FYI, even trivia like "Empty the Trash from the Trash itself with the Empty Trash button" was copying Windows.

Windows has an "Empty the recycle bin" button in the recycle bin but, somehow, didn't think it was one of their top innovations worthy of a separate call-out on their web site.

Actually Mike you continue to prove my and Tayme's point(s) daily. Keep up the good work.

And if yow want to be pedantic: I said laughable, not laughing

@mike,

"OS X is stagnant and Apple has offered almost no innovation in PC operating systems in the seven and a half years since 10.0 shipped.

So, perhaps you can stop laughing long enough to tell us some of the great innovations in PC operating systems that have been introduced by Apple in OS X."

Would you please just give this up?  I think most of the community on this site finds these statements to be hyperbole to the point of dishonesty.

You've already dismissed the substantive innovation Apple has brought to the graphics subsystem, which was one of the main areas Microsoft pitched as new in Vista.  Microsoft thinks WPF was a big deal, but you are trying to say that Quartz/Core Image isn't even though it came first.  You ignore that and continue claiming Apple's doing "almost no innovation".  I suppose that's better than what you usually say, which is "Microsoft is the ONLY innovator".

Mike, you live in your own world.  You knowingly define the parameters of your argument in a way to excludes legitimate rebuttal... and then tout your knowledge as superior to everyone.

If graphics subsystems and APIs down count as important elements of a consumer operating system in an era being driven by content creation and consumption... then what does?

Please get off your high horse.

And neither did I say "outrage"; hyperbole much?

And yet another non-denial denial from Dude1313

And John trying again to cite one API set in one library that came out a couple of months before the equivalent set in Windows as plenty of innovation in over seven years to demonstrate how wrong my premise is that OS X is a stagnant product.

For the record, john, whe we had this conversation to find other Mac innovations you had to go back to the 1980s and 1990s which pretty much made my point.

Really guys. You're making my point quite well.

300+ "new features" in just one release and the best two of you can offer is one several year old low-level API. Really, for the company that's "the innovator" you'd think this would be a no brainer.

Mike do you truly think I feel the need to engage you in a "my dad is bigger then your Dad" shouting match? Do you feel that look: “A non-denial from Dude” is supposed to spur me into action? Do you think I’m sufficiently motivated to engage in a “this for that”, point by point dissection of which is better or which innovates more? Keep waiting buddy.

Could it be that quite a few of us find you and your vigorous defense of Fortress Microsoft tiring? I’m willing to bet  there are many here in the same boat as me.

I owe nothing to you. You and your extremely Windows-Centric viewpoint will not see anything other then what you want to: Which coincidentally makes you just the same as the Apple fanatics you so deride… pot meet kettle and all.

Your method of posting can be summed up quite easily: ignore pertinent points that are telling by posters, shout your own screed as loudly as possible, double talk, thread hijack and then claim you didn’t and then deride others for doing the same (hypocrisy), blather on about how your point is the “one true creed” and all that. You might imagine that you are fighting the good fight in much the same way John does, however there is a difference and it has nothing to do with viewpoint. John can acknowledge he might actually be wrong. You? Haven’t seen it yet.

I have neither the time nor inclination to engage in a “debate” with someone who claims they know everything, all the while shouting their own moral superiority (whether or not its intentional) and be shocked that no one wants to hear what they have to say. Guess what it does come across that way, its comes across as arrogance.

Thanks, but no thanks. I would much rather have sane levelheaded discussion(s) with the likes of Tayme, Subzero and Dip, who while I disagree with, respect their viewpoint(s). Sadly you can’t see that, and perhaps never will.

Johnpaopla and Dude1313:

Instead of attacking the poster, why don't you answer the question Mike asked? Why don't you start off by listing the innovations pioneered by Apple in the OS space, instead of side-stepping the main point and attributing hubris and intellectual dishonesty to Mike (and for that matter anybody who cares to criticize Apple)?

You guys don't add anything to the discussion other than personal attacks and regurgitated marketing BS and FUD points.

Nice side-stepping the question, Dude. It's "put up, or shut up" time.

Actually Raj. I'm not the only one who noticed it. As far as side stepping questions, seems to be the norm for some... when in Rome and all.

I rarely, if ever, engage in pointing out a posters flaws, this case its warranted. Its called a no-win situation: Point it out and be done with it I say.

Lastly I'm not about to play his (or yours) game of "See he can't list out anything" when its ultimately a futile endeavor. I'm not playing by yours (or his) rules. I have nothing to prove, then again I'm not running around saying that Apple hasn't done anything in years.

And if by some miracle I do list these out why would I care to listen to the long winded explanations of why I'm wrong? Grab a dictionary and look up the word futile.

Mike (and you apparently) have a view of how things work, great. I'm not trying to change that, but the opposite sure seems to be true.

Again. Non-denial denial from Dude1313 who apparently has never had somebody call his bluff.

I'd like to point out that he was the one who brought this up by commenting on my "laughable" statements and apparently expected that if you attack somebody you don't have to actually know anything about whether what you attacked happened to be true.

Raj

What you're seeing is that, apparently, Dude and John have heard "Apple is the innovator" and "Microsoft never innovates" so often that they believe it without having a clue whether it's true.

I actually would love to be proven wrong. As I said in an earlier post, I think that the industry needs some solid innovation in the desktop OS field and I would like nothing better than to see an innovative competitor to Windows. What I mourn, though, is the current state where the largest competitor (Apple) has stopped innovating and relies on deceptive marketing rather than improving the ecosystem.

Dude1313

You said, "I owe nothing to you."

You attacked my postings as "laughable". You owe me either an explanation of why you are right or an apology and retraction.

I have offered you the chance at the former and you've repeatedly ducked that chance.

It's not "put up or shut up", it's "put up or apologize"

The choice is yours.

Really that's what I said, heh Tayme more double speak here.

I'm fully aware I brought this on myself. It's ok I have big shoulders I'll survive.   Don't see where I claimed otherwise. Your style of posting is what I'm pointing out, I could care less that you want to debate innovations, as mentioned and you apparently missed.

Many have taken you to task namely Tayme and Mary especially in the absolutes that you dealt in this very thread about Market Share, but no rather then admit you are wrong you danced around the issue,especially in light of the fact you had no clue what you were talking about.

mikegalos@msn.com:

Nobody here, as far as I can see has said  "Microsoft never innovates."  The only comments I've seen that are anywhere near that absolutist are yours.  In the other direction, of course.  

Anyway, I'll bite.  Here, off the top of my head, and in no particular order, is a short list of what I would consider to be Apple "innovations":

Display Postscript, Quick Look, Time Machine, Expose, Core Animation, Core Audio, integrated screen sharing, Multi-touch trackpad, two-finger scrolling, Spotlight, Services Menu, global Character Pallette, Bonjour (formerly Rendezvous) device discovery, TrueType,  Quartz Extreme, ColorSync, Core Image.

Please understand I don't present this in the spirit of "only Apple innovates."  That would be as silly as "Apple never innovates." Or "Microsoft never innovates," for that matter.  One could just as easily roll off a list of Microsoft innovations.  Which is sort of my point.

Also, I fully expect you to debunk (or at least marginalize) every item in my humble list.  So have at it.  It shouldat least keep you busy for a while.

Have a great day.

Dude1313

You said, "I owe nothing to you."

You attacked my postings as "laughable". You owe me either an explanation of why you are right or an apology and retraction.

I have offered you the chance at the former and you've repeatedly ducked that chance.

It's not "put up or shut up", it's "put up or apologize"

The choice is yours.

And note the "yeah that's what I said is in relationship to MS I noted it as a "gift" you said "never", again that darn never.

But as to learni g from the wisdom of Tayme, enough for now.

Dude1313

You said, "I owe nothing to you."

You attacked my postings as "laughable". You owe me either an explanation of why you are right or an apology and retraction.

I have offered you the chance at the former and you've repeatedly ducked that chance.

It's not "put up or shut up", it's "put up or apologize"

The choice is yours.

Dude1313

To save you scrolling in case you decide to "put up" rather than apologize and retract...

-----------------------

For the record, the two statements I've made that you've mischaracterised rather than answer are:

Microsoft, given their dominent position in the market and pressure from change averse corporate customers, should be the least likely operating system vendor to be innovating, yet they're the primary innovator in PC operating systems.

OS X is stagnant and Apple has offered almost no innovation in PC operating systems in the seven and a half years since 10.0 shipped.

So, perhaps you can stop laughing long enough to tell us some of the great innovations in PC operating systems that have been introduced by Apple in OS X.

Here's a start for you, go to the Apple site and show us which of those "300+ New Features" in 10.5 weren't just a case of "Cupertino, start your photocopiers". Here's the URL to save you some time: www.apple.com/.../300.html

Don't forget, we're talking about OS innovations. You know, things that improve the state of the art of operating systems and not  things like "Empty the Trash from the Trash itself with the Empty Trash button" or enhancements to the UI of bundled applicatons.

Mike looking at it (even thou you still misinterpt) my points I will apologize for to the points you object to, wrong on my part.

I'm still not going to engage in a point for point basis it serves no purpose.

Dude1313

OK

Mike, I think I know what you are driving at.  At the core, I can say I somewhat agree with you and somewhat disagree with you concerning this exercise.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but you are really asking what is an innovation, and what is just simply a feature.  That is what I'm hearing here.  The problem with the analogy is that it really depends on how far you want to stretch it.

Let's take this extreme example (as many know I like to use the extreme side of things as a measure of their worth).  One could say that the last innovation in the automobile was the combustion engine, and in some ways you would be correct.  Everything after the combustion engine has just simply been a feature added on top of that one innovation.  There has been no change in the way that automobiles essentially function after that.  You put in fuel and go.

However, to say that this was the only important innovation would be taking the concept of this innovation way too far.

Just as much as the negative naysayers against what Mike is saying need to provide some examples of true innovation, Mike, you also need to come to the plate with some better defined examples of innovation, and why they are important, what makes them innovative, etc.  In either case, the exercise is like trying to explain the plot in the movie Wild Things.

@Webguy, in those examples you posted, I wouldn't really call most of them true innovation.  Nice and welcomed features?  Yeah, we can agree on that.  Out of that list, taking in to account I don't even know what some of them are, but Postscript and TrueType were the only true innovative examples from that particular list you provided, in my opinion.

Dipsh t Admin,

Well, yeah, that's the  problem with a discussion of this sort, isn't it?  Your combustion engine analogy above is spot on.  It depends on how broadly or narrowly one defines innovation.  I mean, Jeez, we're still using CPUs, displays, keyboards and pointing devices, so really nothing has changed since 1984, right?

Oh, and to all - I apologize for the Apple-related content.  It is never my intent to come into a Windows blog and spout Apple stuff - it's just that mikegalos@msn.com asked so I thought I'd oblige.  I'm done now.

@Webguy,

Is it any surprise that Mike ignored you and went on to claim "OS X is stagnant and Apple has offered almost no innovation in PC operating systems in the seven and a half years since 10.0 shipped."

I've listed this stuff before with Mike.  And because he's hacking it up and shilling for Microsoft, he trivializes the points. I don't claim that "Microsoft never innovates" or that "Apple is the only innovator".  Those kinds of statements of absolute "truth" are wrong... and precisely the kind of rhetoric that Mike is all about on this site (only in Microsoft's favor).

Again, the whole set of graphics and audio technologies that include Quartz Extreme, Core Image, Core Video Core Animation, Core Audio, etc are major improvements to multimedia and GUI features, functionality and developers tools.  Many came out as early as 10.2 in 2002.

We are in an era in which consumption and creation of content is one of the top uses for the computer by many consumers.  These are very important innovations. They underpin Apple's own applications like the amazing Motion and even iChat (with it's awesome virtual room for multi-video chat). And developers are building amazing, high-quality realtime applications like Pixelmator with these tools and saving themselves massive amounts of work by leveraging the OS instead of doing their own custom code for the same work.  Free, rich, 32bit float broadcast quality realtime image processing.  It's a big deal.

Yet Mike said I was "trying again to cite one API set in one library that came out a couple of months before the equivalent set in Windows".  Wrong.  That's a dishonest misrepresentation of the technologies and the timetable for their delivery.

But there real problem is simple.  Mike isn't interested in what any of us may have to say.  No matter what we bring to the table, he will downplay it as trivial and irrelevant, dismiss us as fanboys and ignore the content of the rebuttal and then go on restating his hype and FUD as fact again and again and again.

Of course, it doesn't matter.  We obviously should expect this kind of blind cheerleading from a Microsoft employee who came through the US vs. MS trial having been brainwashed by the accused to the point of being in denial of the verdict.

Only Microsoft innovations count as innovations.  We get it Mike.  Retooling the graphics subsystem is only a big deal when it's a pillar in Vista (one of the three main pillars according to Microsoft's own communication with the community).  When it's demonstrated that Apple got there much much earlier... that's trivialized to being 4 lines of code in one API that nobody uses.  It's amazing the level of detailed knowledge Mike seems to feel he has regarding the entirety of OSX's codebase and APIs.  

Truly.  It takes a very special kind of hubris to dismiss it all in statements that require (and thus imply) absolute knowledge.

Dip and Webguy,

Actually, I'd disagree to some extent.

Granted, if you go to either extreme you find the point becomes moot. You could say "All modern computers are essentially the same design that Von Neuman came up with so there are no innovations". Likewise, in the other direction, you could say "nobody's used that exact shade of blue on a file open icon" and say every change is an innovation.

If you go pretty much at any level in between, however, you end up with a situation where the vast majority of innovations have come from Microsoft rather than Apple.

I agree that picking what level to work on is important to keep a fair discussion. What I'm saying is that which level you pick (except for those extremes) doesn't change the result.

John

You've said that I know more than you do and then when I come to a different conclusion than you based on that knowledge that you admit I have, I'm brainwashed.

"the vast majority of innovations have come from Microsoft rather than Apple."

You really are an amazing company man, Mike.  Microsoft was lucky to have you.  I know it can be hard to hire such "true believers" and it's clear that you consider Microsoft evangelism to be worth pursuing at all times... even at the expense of reason or truth.

I'd love to hear you, John Carmack and Tim Berners Lee have a discussion of how Microsoft has done all the innovation in the OS business.  Considering that Berners Lee developed the foundation of the web and the first web browser on a NeXT system in 1990 that was very very far ahead of Windows 95, let alone Windows in 1990.

www.w3.org/.../WorldWideWeb.html

" I wrote the program using a NeXT computer. This had the advantage that there were some great tools available -it was a great computing environment in general. In fact, I could do in a couple of months what would take more like a year on other platforms, because on the NeXT, a lot of it was done for me already. There was an application builder to make all the menus as quickly as you could dream them up. there were all the software parts to make a wysiwyg (what you see is what you get - in other words direct manipulation of text on screen as on the printed - or browsed page) word processor. I just had to add hypertext, (by subclassing the Text object)"

Yep.  Sounds like Tim may have some problems with your hype, Mike.

Of course, Carmack developed Doom in NeXTStep for other reasons.

From his .plan 1998 regarding NeXT:

"For several years, I considered it the best development environment around.  It still has advantages today"

He goes on to say that at that point, NT was the best platform for 3D graphics work... which was certainly true in 1998 and the legacy of which extends to today where Windows is the primary 3D platform for pros (along with linux).

We need not go back over the origins of the Mac GUI, which Microsoft has contributed very little to in comparison to the initial innovations.

Today's Apple is yesterday's NeXT.  OSX is to NeXT as NT is to VMS. (right?)

Than... of course, there is Apple's biggest (in my opinion) contribution in the 1990's.  QuickTime.  Released in 1991 it was certainly revolutionary at that point and laid the foundation for realtime media playback.

These are just a few examples that I think pretty fairly refute the idea that...

"the vast majority of innovations have come from Microsoft rather than Apple."

...but what the hell do I know?

@Mike,

It is the way you phrase things that's wrong.  The either-or partisan hackery.  Your sense of the proportions and degrees of importance is a matter of pure opinion that you treat as indisputable fact.  You treat the gray as if it's black and white and respond to disagreements with "I've lived it".  You're a smart, knowledgeable guy.  But your approach to these topics is just coated in arrogance and condescension.

Mike,

Perhaps you could counter Webguy's list of innovations with what you think are the true innovations that MS pioneered.

This back and forth of "I know what Apple/MS innovated, but I don't need to oblige you with a list just 'coz I don't feel like it" is a waste of time and effort.

RaaJ

First we'd need to agree to a level and a time frame. But I'd be fine with that if somebody agrees to do the same for OS X.

John

Again, you responded to the question of innovation in OS X with a discussion of Macintosh in the 1980s and early 1990s and a discussion of NeXTstep in 1990.(And, no, OS X 10 is NOT the "next generation of NeXTstep".)

I didn't say Apple didn't have laurels to rest on or past glories to point to.

If we're restricting this discussion to the recent releases (since 2000)... can you please illuminate the mountains of OS innovation in XP and Vista that dwarf the improvements and innovation in OSX to the point where your statements can seem valid and not hyperbole.

On a side note, how OSX is NOT the successor to NeXTStep?  Apple bought NeXT and the same team that developed NeXTStep continued to work on it and sculpt it into OSX.

So, Mike.  It's all you, buddy.  List the top 10  innovations in order of importance and why Apple's got nothing like them.

Whoh, whoh, whoh, WHOH! People. Come on.

Mike and John,

Lets be really honest here. The GUI interface has been pretty stagnant since in the last 10 years. Both Apple and Microsoft are EQUALLY to blame in the lack of evolutionary changes. Most of the changes lately have been incremental, sprinkling other people's or companies additions with Apple and Microsoft borrowing heavily from each other. Both companies are to blame, because instead of being the hungry outsiders, both companies are formal corporations. Both Apple and Microsoft are equally spoiled by the successes and failures of their products.

At this point in the game, Vista and Leopard are pretty equal in terms of their abilities. No one OS is better than the other. Some of us prefer Windows for the open hardware and software environment, while others prever Apple for the greater optimised environment and tighter quality controls.

Have you both ever considered that Microsoft and Apple works together more than either of you would like to admit? They need each other like the yin and the yang. They have a symbiotic relationship in which what happens to one, ends up effecting the other.

Both of you are partially right and wrong at the same time. Now this is just an ego game. End it. Move on. Get a life.

Peace.

@mikegalos - "First we'd need to agree to a level and a time frame."

How about all computer related innovations since the dawn of time? MS vs Apple. Not restricted to any level of OS...in fact, the list does not even have to be strictly OS related. Hardware, software, functions, algorithms...whatever. They are all fair game.

"But I'd be fine with that if somebody agrees to do the same for OS X."

Why not just put your money where your mouth is. If you know that MS has innovated more than Apple, feel free to list away. You have been stating this for weeks...put up or shut up.

--tayme

@sub,

"Have you both ever considered that Microsoft and Apple works together more than either of you would like to admit? They need each other like the yin and the yang. They have a symbiotic relationship in which what happens to one, ends up effecting the other."

I 100% agree with you, sub.  And please don't lump me in with Mike as being of the same approach but from the opposite side.  I'm not.  I'm not the one making bold, hyperbolic claims about Apple doing all innovation the way MIke is about Microsoft.  We're aren't coming at this from similar but opposite angles.  And it is the his approach and framing of his discussion that I have more problems with than anything.  Microsoft may very well be moving the underlying OS tech forward more than OSX is.  I don't know.  It doesn't seem like that from my layman geek's perspective.  But I could be wrong.  

Microsoft innovates a great deal.  I just don't like their approach and philosophy to product design.  It's an opinion.  I'm not stating it as fact.  Again, this is where Mike and once again are very very different.

"They have a symbiotic relationship"

Kind of like the Gunjan and the Naboo...

Well.. it looks like Mike has gone into radio silence... until the next thread where he'll claim Apple is doing "almost no innovation" in the OS since OSX's debut, while Microsoft is "the only one innovating in the OS".

I'm not sure why anyone can take those kinds of statements seriously from this guy considering his methods of debate, his selective framing of the discussion to serve his argument... and the fact that he is Microsoft employee (or was).

No, John, I'm just ignoring you :-)

@mikegalos - "No, John, I'm just ignoring you "

SOP for you, Mike. Make those broad statments and refuse to back it up with fact. You rate right up there with Lindy and crew.  Too bad...you have much more to offer, but make yourself irrelevant with your actions.

--tayme

tayme

Gee, if I post a lot, I get attacked for posting a lot.

If I don't answer every post, I get attacked for not posting.

@mikegalos - "If I don't answer every post, I get attacked for not posting."

You have been asked multiple times to provide this list of the things that make MS the only or predominant innovator in the computer industry. You keep moving the target each time you are asked. You should just admit that you were overzealous or just downright wrong, but I am afraid it would go something like this - ars.userfriendly.org/cartoons

--tayme

tayme

As you know (since you replied to the post) I offered with the following rules:

"First we'd need to agree to a level and a time frame. But I'd be fine with that if somebody agrees to do the same for OS X."

Since nobody has offered to do the same for OS X, I'm still waiting.

If somebody does volunteer to put facts where his mouth is, so to speak, then that person and I will have to agree on the level of innovations we're discussing so we're not comparing apples to oranges and the timeframe involved so we're not comparing "everything done at Apple since the Apple ]["  against "only changes that came in Vista SP1"

"and the fact that he is Microsoft employee (or was)"

He has said he is not anymore.  And, what bearing does this necessarily have here?  I know you'll point out the obvious that since he is involved with them, that he is some how beholden to them.  But can he not be a legitimate spokesperson for a company that he works for?

Like I said earlier in this discussion, I think the burden of proof is on both sides that are claiming and beating the innovation drum.  I haven't seen any true and backed up innovation on either side stated.  The only reason I am defending Mike at all here is that he is the only one here that is in any kind of state to truly say what is innovative, because he seems to have a voluminous knowledge of MS.  If someone from the Apple camp with commiserate experience were to debate this with him, I think we could all just sit back and watch.

Now some are going to call me a MS or Galos shill.  So be it.  But I'm not going to defend or fight his claims of innovation because I just simply do not know, and I don't think anyone else here can make such a fight without the necessary experience and knowledge.  At least in the narrow definition of what qualifies as true "innovation".

Still, Mike, why don't you humor us with something, anything, to back the claim up?  If you've said it before, link to it.  I would find it hard to believe that you are not prolific on other sites.  Throw us a bone.

@mikegalos - "As you know (since you replied to the post) I offered with the following rules:"

And, since you know...since you replied, I offered the following:

"How about all computer related innovations since the dawn of time? MS vs Apple. Not restricted to any level of OS...in fact, the list does not even have to be strictly OS related. Hardware, software, functions, algorithms...whatever. They are all fair game."

"Since nobody has offered to do the same for OS X, I'm still waiting. "

Why do you need to wait for somebody to list Appls's innovations before you can list MS's? According to you, MS is the sole innovator...so there should be no such requirement. Like I said, you keep changing the rules.

--tayme

tayme

That's really funny. You actually, in one post, attacked me for setting rules and sticking to them and close with accusing me of changing the rules.

Seriously, that's funny.

dipsh

To clarify. I have been a Microsoft employee in the past and have also consulted to them. I am not now an employee of Microsoft nor consulting to them. In the interest of full disclosure, starting today I will be doing a short writing assigment for a company that is working with a company that is doing a contract job for Microsoft. I am, at this time, in no way an official spokesperson for Microsoft.

That said...

The reason I don't do a one off item or list is that it would be immediately the basis for a pile-on that would end up becoming a wildly uncontrolled and inaccurate mish mash of posts that would clarify nothing and would take huge amounts of time.

@mikegalos - Show me where I attacked you for setting rules? Are you talking about the rule that somebody should post a list of Apple's innovations before you can list MS's...even though you are the person who made the broad claim that they are the ONLY or predominant innovator? If so, I was not attacking you for sticking to the rules...just calling BS on that particular rule. Admit it...you were wrong to make such a strong statement...it's really ok. No reason to try to appear God-like here...

--tayme

Bravo Tayme. Bravo.

This is pretty lame, Mike.  You make truly hyperbolic claims about Microsoft unequivocal dominance of OS innovation in multiple threads, you shoot down my lengthy addressing of the graphics subsystems in OSX that predated Avalon/WPF... and all you do is dismiss that.  Then you dismiss older innovations of Apple and NeXT as being too old.... so... it sounds like you are building your statement on a timetable that you're just not willing to share with us.

You're the one making the claim.  You're the one dismissing older innovation.  You expect me and others to argue with you on your turf with your rules in a game constructed to ensure your rhetorical victory?  Dipsht may be willing to cede you the dictatorial power to declare what is and is not "innovation", but I sure as hell will not.  

You're a very smart guy.  No question.  You seem to know off the top of your head much more about the business than I do.  But that doesn't mean that you're right.   Your experience brings with it biases.  We all do.  I switched platforms.  I can see both sides, though I favor the Mac as my tool now.  And, you know, sometimes engineers can be a bit myopic.  Notice that both Apple and Microsoft are run by Steve's who aren't engineers?  Yet they make the call.  They steer the strategy. I'm not knocking engineering or engineers.  Just stating the what think is a pretty agreeable observation.

So... how is this going to go?  Are you just going to keep flame baiting and then ignoring reasonable requests for a back and forth?  Or are you going to put up.

THE GREAT DEBATE:

Here's a timeframe:  the past 10 years.  Why?  Its a round number. so 1998 to 2008.  We leave the Mac GUI, NeXT and NT early innovation debate behind and focus on the present.  I think that gives you an inherent an unfair advantage, but so be it.  The present it is.

Here's What counts:  The platform.  

By that I mean anything in the OS, including the underpinnings, the graphics and audio subsystems and GUI, networking, developer APIs anything that is used as a building block for users or developers.  Applications that provide an interface to platform are fair game (like system preferences or the control panel).  Applications that are essentially stand-alone programs but bundled with the OS are not.   So iLife doesn't count, obviously, but neither does Vista's Photo Gallery application.  Media Center is a gray area, but I suppose we can include it as well as the rarely-used Front Row on OSX.

Here's my proposal for additional ground rules.

#1.  The degree to which something is "innovative" must be acknowledged as subjective.  Different innovations matter more than others to different users.  One universal "this is bigger/better" must prove it's point in depth. Therefore, the relative importance of one innovation over another when there isn't a clear relationship between the two must be argued on many fronts including:

A. how many technologies or applications stem from the innovation.

B. how many users/developers are helped

C. what's been the impact in the real world.

#3.  When one innovation is built on top of another or is a natural extension of the former, the first innovation wins, but doesn't invalidate the second. For example, DRM is an innovation that was necessary before subscription music could be possible.  So DRM is more important than subscription music services as an innovation.

#4.  When both sides can be demonstrated to have worked on the same problem at the same time (as is often the case.  It is called Computer Science for a reason)... the first to market wins.

This the best I can do right now.  Will you take up the challenge?

@jp - I am guessing that mikegalos will require you to post the first list...that is his way of doing things...I think that I will cross-link to this post so that he knows it is here...he will claim to not know, otherwise.

--tayme

I'm reminded of the weeks of arguing about the shape of the table at the Paris Peace talks in 1968.

This thread has already achieved Dostoevsky-like length, generating a lot of heat and little light.  I can see little to be gained by continuing it, unless you just like to argue for the sake of it.

Oh, and I like Jerry Seinfeld.

Actually, tayme, I was off installing IE8B2

John, Are you voluteering to take the Mac side?

If not, then the rules don't matter since they should be set between the participants.

If so, then say so.

I honestly can't tell from your post.

@Mike,

Yeah, I was saying we could go back and forth. I'm all for establishing some agreed context for the debate.  You outclass me on tech by miles, but I like to learn from smart guys like yourself and I'm a fast learner.  This forum is looking like it's not the ideal forum but whatever.

Let me know if you have other ideas for the frame of the discussion.

Mike,

It's pretty simple. Even after 200+ posts on this one(!) blog entry, you haven't provided a simple list of all those "innovations" Microsoft is doing.

Haven't got one, have you?

John,

I agree that this might not be the ideal forum and we can both think about better places. At a minimum, this topic is already way too long for reasonable navigation.

I'll look through your proposed context and rules and see if between the two of us we can come up with a good, educational process.

@Mike,

Sounds good.  I want to learn more about Microsoft and welcome the chance to have civil back and forth with someone of your knowledge.  Ping me on email from johnpapola.com if you'd like.

John,

You should have mail from me. (Assuming that Apple service stays up) :-)

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