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Apple: Do Not, Under Any Circumstances, Buy an iPad

Following news that I was right about Apple's decision to not allow iPad pre-orders would cause many potential buyers to reassess things, comes this unbelievable bit of news directly from Apple itself: The company said that it would aggressively lower prices on the iPad if/when it doesn't take off in the marketplace.

Apple intends to stay "nimble" on pricing of the iPad, possibly lowering prices if the newly unveiled tablet device fails to gain traction among consumers. That was just one of the items in a note out Sunday night from Credit Suisse recounting meetings with Apple executives.

Shope also wrote that despite the seemingly aggressive pricing of the iPad — the lower-than-expected price points range from $499 to $829 — Apple seemed to indicate it would respond with price cuts if demand for the device wasn’t revving up the way it liked. “While it remains to be seen how much traction the iPad gets initially, management noted that it will remain nimble (pricing could change if the company is not attracting as many customers as anticipated),” Shope wrote.

So the message here is clear. If you want an iPad, simply wait. Come on, lemming. You can do it.

Published Feb 08 2010, 01:08 PM by pthurrott
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Comments

 

chipwinter said:

I wish Apple would be more honest about stuff like this.

It would have been refreshing if Jobs had gotten up during the iPad debut and announced that they weren't sure there was a market for this thing and that it was a risk.

February 8, 2010 11:36 AM
 

fzanes said:

Can't believe I watched the entire Super Bowl and not one Apple ad...did I miss one??

Thought for sure we would see the first hip, trendy, iPad ad convincing us that all the young people are buying one so you should too!

February 8, 2010 11:36 AM
 

Jon Fingas said:

Paul, you should know better than to bait like that.

Apple did not say it *would* cut the price -- in fact, historically it has been more likely to increase the number of features at the same price and make the existing lower-end more appealing.

Moreover, this is true of most companies: if demand sags a bit and margins allow, the price will go down.  There's nothing new here, and were it a Windows tablet, you'd be defending the practice.

February 8, 2010 11:54 AM
 

uberVU - social comments said:

This post was mentioned on Twitter by thurrott: Apple: Do Not, Under Any Circumstances, Buy an iPad: Following news that I was right about Apple's decision to not... http://bit.ly/dlSAJi

February 8, 2010 11:55 AM
 

kadarzsolt said:

Apple enthusiasts are likely to pay an artificially inflated price for devices that lack many (otherwise widely available) features. I wish there was a good term for describing this behavior....

remember the $599 iPhone 8G?

February 8, 2010 12:00 PM
 

Logjamming said:

@ kadarzsolt

Microsoft enthusiasts are likely to pay an artificially inflated price for an OS that introduces  features that have been available on OSX for many years.

Remember the 400$ dollar Windows Vista or Windows 7?

February 8, 2010 12:03 PM
 

Ocean said:

Would a iPad success jumpstart the entire market for tablets?

Paul sure wants this to collapse...

February 8, 2010 12:15 PM
 

vedista1962 said:

Dear Paul,

on behalf of the millions of Lemmings who enjoy Apple products i would like to thank you for your persisting (and many times touching) interest for our wallets.

However i would like to note that i am a proud and enormously happy owner of an iMac, an iPod, an iPhone and do not intend to follow your advice for not buying (under any circumstances) the iPad. I will not follow it because it will allow me to enjoy 95% of the activities i am currently doing in my desk, from the comfort of my bed, couch, armchair, car.

We Lemmings dont always follow logic. In fact, most of the time we follow our heart. Look at me straight in my happy digital eyes and confess. Are all of the purchases you do followed after complicated analysis' and mathematics.? Do you ever tell a friend who owns a Ford Mustang that this was an insane purchase cause the price is high and propose him to wait till prices drop? Of course not!!

I will buy this insanely beautiful and useful (for me) iPad like a teenager meets his girlfriend  in front of a cinema on a Saturday night no matter how much the ticket costs.  

February 8, 2010 12:19 PM
 

SuperSite4Rudy said:

If the iPad had a front camera- I'd buy it regardless.  This would had been perfect for Skype calls.

February 8, 2010 12:22 PM
 

Ocean said:

A company trying to open up a new market for themselves by being flexible on pricing.  The horror!

February 8, 2010 12:22 PM
 

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Pingback from  Twitter Trackbacks for                 Apple: Do Not, Under Any Circumstances, Buy an iPad - SuperSite Blog         [winsupersite.com]        on Topsy.com

February 8, 2010 12:23 PM
 

shark47 said:

Despite what the shills here say, that's a pretty candid admission from Apple. I don't think it's going to stop most iFanatics from standing in line overnight to buy this thing.

February 8, 2010 12:30 PM
 

gadfly10 said:

In another meeting, Steve Balmer threw a chair at what turned out to be his own shadow.

February 8, 2010 12:35 PM
 

gavers said:

A tacit admission that it may not do so well even at $499?

February 8, 2010 12:36 PM
 

lehenbauer said:

Yeah, wait for some Microsoft vaporware thing instead.  It might be like Zune, or WinCE, or run Windows 7, or all three, and it'll definitely have an app store, or music rentals, in the US, anyway.  Multitouch definitely, and it might run Office, if you transfer the font team to them.  Can't wait!

February 8, 2010 12:37 PM
 

rr0de74@live.com said:

Only two questions really.....

Which model will iPaul buy?

Will he wait in line over night to get his?

Here at iWinsupersite we like to state the obvious.  Apple and many, many, many other companies will lower prices on products over time, to stimulate sales.

Example the Microsoft Xbox 360, after catastrophic  hardware failures, has lowered the price many times to stimulate sales.  I would guess when the PS3 pushes the 360 into third place this year, MS will lower the price again.

February 8, 2010 12:38 PM
 

G5Man said:

This is true of practically all products.  For a guy who has not touched one of these, and who will have one in his hands on launch day, he really does want this to fail.

February 8, 2010 12:38 PM
 

gorath said:

vedista1962, I think you have some issues!

February 8, 2010 12:39 PM
 

Dipsh t Admin said:

Actually the most surprising thing here is not the pricing drop.  We all know that's going to happen, it's just a matter of when.  The surprising thing is that this candidness would be leaked.  It would seem to me that Shope will no longer be in any meetings with Apple executives.  In other news, there is more than one executive at Apple?  I thought it would be all jobs at the top of the org chart, then everyone else.

February 8, 2010 12:39 PM
 

rr0de74@live.com said:

iPaul how much did you pay for your 2G iPhone???

February 8, 2010 12:41 PM
 

rr0de74@live.com said:

Today in my email an offer from Amazon.....

Windows 7 Secrets by Paul Thurrott, 47% off.  Paul you are being very nimble with your pricing...or the demand must be really low???

February 8, 2010 12:45 PM
 

shark47 said:

@DIpsh: "The surprising thing is that this candidness would be leaked."

Exactly. It's as if -- like Paul says -- Apple is asking people not to buy it because they will end up dropping prices anyway.

February 8, 2010 12:46 PM
 

Bodypaint said:

the degree of fantical brand loyalty, no matter what side of the fence you're on is simply astonishing. It's a product people!!! This product doesn't measure up in any way shape or form to other products in this category, accept it and move on.

The fact that you enjoy apple products or dell products, doesn't mean  you have to purchase every single product they sell.. I own a dell laptop, my second one to be exact. The reason I bought the second one is the first one was getting long in the tooth and it needed to be replaced. The first laptop provided me terrific service (6 years and counting without reinstalling the OS) and zero hardware issues. That said, I don't own a dell desktop, went with a home built soluiton instead, I don't own any of their monitors, or other products although they have pretty good ratings..  I'm in no way a dell loyalist, I buy products that meet my needs for the price I'm willing to pay. If dell produced a stinker laptop, and I had the misfortune of buying one, I'd probably try another manufacturer. I'll bet that some of the customers that bought apple's 27" imac aren't going to be jumping at buying yet another apple experiment.

February 8, 2010 12:49 PM
 

roteague said:

Apple is just being smart. This thing is not going to launch without the same lack of competition that the iPhone did. Of course, I had no intention of buying one anyway.

February 8, 2010 12:50 PM
 

wallaceno9 said:

Dear Paul,

Why are you so obsessed with Apple?  Are you really a fanboy but are afraid of getting found out?

Get a life, and do what you are best at - Microsoft bashing!

February 8, 2010 12:55 PM
 

roteague said:

"rr0de74@live.com said:

Here at iWinsupersite we like to state the obvious.  Apple and many, many, many other companies will lower prices on products over time, to stimulate sales."

Yeah, many companies do this as well, so this really isn't new. Often as a prelude to something else. I just noticed over at the Zune store - I'm in the process of ordering a new Zune HD - that not only has the price dropped, they aren't offering expidited service during a certain period this month ... sounds like something is up in Zune land.

February 8, 2010 12:56 PM
 

gfryesc1 said:

but King Lemming Thurrott, you're buying one!  Probably going to go there on opening day and stand in line with the other lemmings.  Hypocrite.

February 8, 2010 12:56 PM
 

fzanes said:

@vedista1962

"I will buy this insanely beautiful and useful (for me) iPad, like a teenager meets his girlfriend  in front of a cinema on a Saturday night no matter how much the ticket costs."

Seriously?  You wrote that?  Insanely beautiful?  This could only come from a Mac fanboy....beautifully brainwashed.  You are the perfect target for Apple's marketing team.  Wow.

February 8, 2010 12:57 PM
 

NoNameAtAll said:

"Get a life, and do what you are best at - Microsoft bashing!"

Telling people to get a life over the internet. Classic.

Anyway, Paul's essentially giving the thing more free publicity, really. But also, I laugh at the brand loyalty. As a consumer, I'll take from whatever company, so to speak.

February 8, 2010 1:01 PM
 

utepastor said:

Sounds like Apple is not going to nab the early adopters at the insanely high price they like to get, a la the first G iPhone, and then lower the price 6 months later.

I am surprised they did not just offer a 16 or 32gb and then add higher end models in the next cycle.

Starting @ $499 sounds great on paper but "the one you want" is the $699 machine which is waaaay over priced in todays market. Bring the $499 down to $399 and the $699 down to $549 and now they night have a chance.

February 8, 2010 1:14 PM
 

Jon Fingas said:

An interesting point raised earlier: if you're a "lemming" because you buy a product the moment it's ready, then that would be disastrous for Microsoft:

Never, ever buy a Zune until a few months after it's out -- Microsoft often cuts the price a few months later, before it's even close to being replaced (that happened with the Zune HD just this past week).

Never buy a Windows PC or Windows Mobile phone simply because you need or want it.  Ever.  You are only allowed to wait until it's in the clearance bin at Best Buy or Verizon.

If you bought an Xbox 360 when it launched in late 2005, you're just a shameless Microsoft lemming who will buy anything Steve Ballmer asks you to buy.

Of course, I don't believe those statements.  Why?  Because companies are allowed to show discretion with pricing, especially when they're entering into relatively new product categories like Apple is with the iPad.  The notion that one must not even hint that prices will ever change is naive, if not hypocritical given how often Microsoft and its partners will run sales and price drops.

February 8, 2010 1:25 PM
 

runner7775 said:

"but King Lemming Thurrott, you're buying one!  Probably going to go there on opening day and stand in line with the other lemmings.  Hypocrite."

Exactly right! I must say WOW! Why in the world would a technology journalist ever buy a tech product?  That's just silly.

February 8, 2010 2:14 PM
 

yoshipod said:

Paul is absolutely correct on this one.

After all, didn't Microsoft just lower the price of the Zune HD since nobody bought that?

:)

February 8, 2010 2:52 PM
 

BladRnr said:

Why, Paul, do you constantly deride people who buy Apple products? We know you don't really have their (our) best interest at heart. You just don't want them spending any money on Apple products.

The iPad is probably the hand-writing on the wall for MSFT, and what, you want to try to stop the tidal wave about to hit them? Really? There is zero innovation coming out of Redmond that actually benefits average people who aren't Windows geeks. Zero. And that's Apple's fault?

Say what you want about the iPad. Keeping telling the 50 or so people here just how awful Apple is, and how we should all be computing like it's 1995, and Windows rulez the world with massive market share, and just wait long enough and MSFT will have something better. It's just lip service at end of the day.

The iPad is the future, just like the Mac GUI was in 1984. And just like MSFT back then, it will again take them 10 years to realize it.

February 8, 2010 2:55 PM
 

Andreas J said:

"The iPad is the future, just like the Mac GUI was in 1984. And just like MSFT back then, it will again take them 10 years to realize it."

And then they'll surge ahead like they did with Windows 95.

February 8, 2010 3:51 PM
 

kent909 said:

If the iPad had a front camera- I'd buy it regardless.  This would had been perfect for Skype calls.

---------------

How many homes have you gone into that has an AT&T video phone as proposed in Arthur C. Clarke's 2001. I have never seen one. Why, because people don't want to sit down in front of a screen to talk on the phone. So the iPad not having a camera says nobody wants a video phone so why would you want that capability? Great for podcasts on TwitTV but not for talking to someone in your bathrobe.

February 8, 2010 3:51 PM
 

kent909 said:

60 million copies of Windows 7 already sold. No lemmings here.

February 8, 2010 3:52 PM
 

kent909 said:

In last Friday's Windows Weekly Paul prettty much ripped Microsoft a new one based on Brass's article in the NYT. Paul likes to point out everyone who does not think like him.

February 8, 2010 3:54 PM
 

Logjamming said:

"And then they'll surge ahead like they did with Windows 95."

Only to discover a bug that has been around for 17 years, like Microsoft did somewhere last week.

The only time Windows was ahead of Apple was in the W98-W2K era. Shortly after OSX 10.2, Microsoft was overtaken and long left behind with 10.3, 10.4, 10.5 and 10.6.

Microsoft is a dying company that only makes money from Office (soon to become obsolete) and Windows (also soon to become obsolote) contracts with businesses and those contracts will expire. Then the sinking ship Microsoft will set out for its final cruise to the bottom of the software ocean.

February 8, 2010 4:03 PM
 

Mirek2 said:

Ha, ha.

They're practically telling people to wait until they lower prices and then to buy it.

I can't believe they would put out something like this...

@ chipwinter: No company really knows it will succeed with a product. Most companies don't even expect to have a huge success, and they don't announce that they're unsure about it. And if they would announce that, they're basically lowering the probability of success. Come on, few people are going to buy something announced as "unsure about whether anyone will want it".

But, come on, I'm sure that it will have at least mediocre success, if not more.

What is cool about this thing, and what I think to be one of few keys to Apple's success, is that it puts out a simple choice for average, non-techy people out there. Instead of having to sift through the buttload of usually mediocre, variably priced tablets, netbooks, and smartbooks, one has the option to settle for a hyped-up, well-known choice that has probably all the features he'll need (believe it or not, iWork is actually a decent MS Office replacement; plus here it has a bunch of touch UI niceties that the overpopulated MS Office ribbon with some tiny icons can't really compete with).

February 8, 2010 4:08 PM
 

Info Dave said:

Last weekend someone asked me if they should buy an iPad. I told them to wait for version 2. More features, lower price. Apple has been real predicable in this regard. Version 1 goes to their most loyal customers. Developers don't mind paying more to be the first to get their apps on the iPad. And then the people who drink the Apple Kool-Aid. They will buy anything Apple makes. Ramp up production for your most loyal followers. Get the kinks out of production. Ramp up production, then add features. Hit the ground running with version 2.

Apple is more inclined to expand market share on this platform. The electronic stores are additional revenue streams that give them the incentive to sell more units. Making the A4 that runs the iPad saves a lot of money in each iPad. That helps to give Apple the ability to compete at a lower price point.

February 8, 2010 4:10 PM
 

rr0de74@live.com said:

aggressively lower prices when it doesn't take off in the marketplace......

www.amazon.com/.../ref=sr_1_1

Price: $26.49

You Save: $23.50 (47%)

I would say that is aggressive.   Hurry before they run out!!

February 8, 2010 5:00 PM
 

rr0de74@live.com said:

"Apple has been real predicable in this regard."

Apple and everyone else.  Playstation 3 was $599 with a 60gig drive in 2006.  Its now $299 with a 120gig drive.

February 8, 2010 5:02 PM
 

rr0de74@live.com said:

"Microsoft is a dying company that only makes money from Office (soon to become obsolete) and Windows (also soon to become obsolote) contracts with businesses and those contracts will expire"

I was in a Cisco UCS server class recently in a large city on the west coast.  The class was packed.  Everyone buying that expensive hardware was buying it to run VMware or XenServer on.  NO ONE was going to use Hyper V, and almost everyone in the class that had laptops with them were running Mac's or Linux.  No one was buying these things to run Windows straight on the hardware, hyper V or not.  The times are a changing.

February 8, 2010 5:14 PM
 

DRWAM said:

Paul is in the money with this one. I've been tell everybody that they will eventually get a subsidy from ATT and drop the price of the 3G with contract, then have to drop the price on the the non-3G too.

February 8, 2010 5:38 PM
 

Mirek2 said:

@BladRnr"There is zero innovation coming out of Redmond that actually benefits average people who aren't Windows geeks. Zero."

Not taking sides, but I have to disagree here. Being a Mac user and even a Mac OS X user, I have to say that MS has some cool stuff going on too.

I don't mean the ribbon -- here I actually prefer (parts of) the UIs that are in iWork (the touch UI looks very intuitive and cool, by the way) or even OpenOffice.org. But look at Windows -- the aero snap feature is very user-friendly (in fact, I've put a similar feature on Mac OS, although shortcut-triggered), window maximization allows one to work on one thing without unnecessary distractions (Google Chrome OS takes this a step further), aero-flip (much quicker and better-managed than Exposé), the squiggles under spelling and grammar errors (at least I think that was them), the taskbar, ..... Now, I know that's not that much, and there really isn't anything new and exciting (it's always either, but not both) coming from MS today.

"Say what you want about the iPad. Keeping telling the 50 or so people here just how awful Apple is, and how we should all be computing like it's 1995, and Windows rulez the world with massive market share, and just wait long enough and MSFT will have something better. It's just lip service at end of the day."

I don't think Paul necessarily always criticizes Apple. I just think he's sometimes so fed up with the over-whelming puffery about Apple that comes out of almost any media source that he feels like he should lower the excitement to a more rational level. With MS developments, on the other hand, there's not much excitement, so he tries to talk up every glimmer of hope (like Windows Mobile 7).

With the iPad, Paul rightly feels that things like this exist already, and that better things with more capabilities exist already. However, he forgets that none of those have the at-first-sight appeal that iPad or the same kind of attention it gets (you're always likelier to buy a product you can remember a name of, and it's easier to remember the single iPad, which sticks to the product over the years, than the countless gibberish names other computer companies come up with) or the same kind of touch friendliness (after all, all apps for the iPad have been built to be touched; you can't say that about Windows apps, which tend to have tiny menus and buttons that are hard to push with fingers).

"The iPad is the future, just like the Mac GUI was in 1984. And just like MSFT back then, it will again take them 10 years to realize it."

I'd say touch interfaces are a definite part of the future, and probably will replace our common computer. And, despite unexciting, failed MS attempts to bring touch to the game, the iPhone is really what started the move to touch. But I'm thinking someone will steal the show from Apple, because the iPhone/iPad platform is just too closed and unfriendly -- whether it'll be Google, which already has tablet Chrome OS mockups up, or whether it'll be the less-and-less relevant Microsoft, or perhaps a completely new player remains to be seen. Or perhaps Apple will change its policies?

February 8, 2010 5:44 PM
 

rr0de74@live.com said:

"because the iPhone/iPad platform is just too closed and unfriendly "

Really?  To whom?  Tech geeks and CLI, Linux lovers?  

Does joe consumer think the iPhone, iTunes and the App Store are closed and unfriendly?  I am thinking no since the success of all three is outstanding.  Given that even Technical/geeks think the iPad is nothing but a big iTouch, then how could it fail?  Faster, with a bigger screen and a lower price point than the original iPhone.

I get the complaints, of no multi-tasking, no full OS etc.  However those arguments will never be made by joe consumer.  Instead joe will love a larger, 9.7inch screen to play his already purchased sudoku game on.

February 8, 2010 7:09 PM
 

de Silentio said:

rr0de, you're a douchebag

February 8, 2010 7:17 PM
 

whiplash55 said:

I can't believe they are considering lower the price, even more surprised that they would announce it. That's pretty atypical  for Apple. Its expensive compared to Netbooks, but its not that expensive compared to the top end iTouch.

I don't need it but I kind of want it. I like to see things like this in person before I make a decision, but now they may lower the price, of course I'll wait.

February 8, 2010 8:13 PM
 

Backup77 said:

It will be interesting to see how the ipad goes out of the gate but now with Apple preempting that the price will come down if it doesn't sell well leads me to the conclusion that the wait and see approach would be advantageous.

February 8, 2010 9:08 PM
 

RunTimeError said:

"The company said that it would aggressively lower prices on the iPad if/when it doesn't take off in the marketplace."

The "company" said nothing of the sort you egotistical doofus. Some analyst dude who was quoted on the WSJ who was recounting a meeting (as in, you know, third hand info) the used the words "seemed to indicate".

Besides, when has a tech company, ANY tech company, not lowered the prices on their gadgets a year later. Have you looked up the price of a Motorola razr recently? My brother in law paid about $350 for one when they *first* came out and now he can't give it away.

I don't know what planet you live on Paul, but you've gone off the deep end big time on this tablet deal. You really need to pull your head out of your a$$ and/or switch to decaf. Really. You should listen to yourself. You more of a raving lunatic these days than Steve Ballmer ever was.

February 8, 2010 10:52 PM
 

rr0de74@live.com said:

@de Silentio then what does that make you?

February 8, 2010 10:57 PM
 

robertsjoe said:

You cannot see the future until Apple shows it to you. Even then, backward thinking Microsofties still can't see it.

These posts are pure jealousy.

February 9, 2010 3:11 AM
 

robertsjoe said:

Supersite for Windows, known for not knowing all over the internet

releasecandidateone.com/204:understanding_how_apple_innovates

February 9, 2010 4:13 AM
 

robertsjoe said:

Microsoft passing the buck. Windows' battery life has always been way behind of the superior Macs and OS X.

blogs.msdn.com/.../windows-7-battery-notification-messages.aspx

February 9, 2010 4:14 AM
 

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subzerohitman721 said:

Mirek2

Bravo on your comments! Finally, we get a Mac user with some common sense here. Agree with every single word of your post. Kudos.

My take:

Why is everyone complaining? Paul is doing us all a great public service announcement! A $499 iPad? No thanks. But if Apple were to drop it down to $199 bucks? That would talk me into buying one.

Why should we pay so much for a super-sized iPod Touch? What's the current price of a 2nd generation 8 GB iPod Touch? $199. Since it's been a few months since that release and technology does get cheaper overtime, a 16 GB iPod touch should be about $199, if Apple really wants to sell this thing.

Apple will make up the loss as components get cheaper over time, the profit on the more expensive models, and sales of Macs. But you'd talk me and many others into buying one just to mess around with it.

So it's actually a win for Apple if the iPad's price come crashing down under $200 bucks. Then they can always raise the price on the 2nd generation one, and when a good sale comes up, we'll buy it.

I think there's a good rhyme and reason to Paul's argument here. I just wish they'd apply this to the rest of their line of products I guarantee that a $699 Macbook would sell 10 times more units than at $999. A $399 Mac Mini would sell very fast vs a $599 unit. All Apple would have to do is bundle a keyboard and mouse. And a $899 iMac intro model would really get people buying Macs at the mass market level. Doesn't hurt the brand, but get's people buying.

February 9, 2010 9:20 AM
 

de Silentio said:

@rr0de: a little too liberated.  I shouldn't get online after imbibing.  My apologies.

February 9, 2010 10:03 AM
 

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