Mac Q1 2008 market share: 3.26 percent worldwide, 6.26 percent in the US

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re: Mac Q1 2008 market share: 3.26 percent worldwide, 6.26 percent in the US

subzerohitman721 — Sun, 27 Apr 2008 04:49:15 GMT

Avro,

The reason why I strongly suggest a low end Mac are quite numerous. Traffic patterns across the U.S. are already down to what we consider high gas prices. (I truely sympathise with your $8, its not right no matter how high.) Consumers are already spending less on groceries, media, clothes, and other retail sales figures. Almost every U.S. PC manufactuer is predicting lower sales across the board. Even with all the medium to high sales, with all the new interest in Macs, when recession is in the minds of Americans even the most lavish of spenders cut back.

I would consider this a major creative challenge for the boys of Culpertino. Create a lower end, complete package, yet within the realm of quality Mac that plays to the lower end. Perhaps Apple could tap the creative talents of AMD and start coding for AMD processors. Or even tap Intel to make something happen. If it fails, Apple pulls out. If it succeeds, they get a chance to truely challeng one of the two core constituencies of the Microsoft dominance. If Steve's a gambling man, Apple will find a way. Without sacrifising any quality, Apple should be able to pull it off.

re: Mac Q1 2008 market share: 3.26 percent worldwide, 6.26 percent in the US

Avro — Sat, 26 Apr 2008 18:20:02 GMT

I could see from your point of view it could be a good thing, but once they go into the pit with wafer thin margins - quality would drop, user satisfaction would drop, service would drop and profits would drop.

Macs are good, just save up a little more for one. :-)

re: Mac Q1 2008 market share: 3.26 percent worldwide, 6.26 percent in the US

tristanh — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 21:22:30 GMT

@Avro

You are right that Apple does and excelent job of producing computers for the middle to high end consumer and them producing a low end computer would be wierd to say the least.

However, a low priced Apple may not be such a bad idea as it would allow some of those sitting on the fense to see if the grass really is greener on the other side. The Mac Mini is close to this, but I think that they can do even better.

re: Mac Q1 2008 market share: 3.26 percent worldwide, 6.26 percent in the US

Avro — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 18:22:24 GMT

@ subzerohitman721

Exactly why should Apple aim for the bottom end of the market where margins are wafer thin when they are doing very well at the middle and top end?

(BTW if you think that petrol at $4 a gallon is bad you should try paying $8! (and that is for the small Am gallon :-( )

It would be like BMW trying to produce a Chevette. Why? The economy may be going to pot, but the people most affected will be the ones at the bottom of the market and they most likely will just put off a purchase until things get better. Apple would be wise to avoid this area of the market. As the Ferenghi say 'There's no profit in it'.

re: Mac Q1 2008 market share: 3.26 percent worldwide, 6.26 percent in the US

DarkSages — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 15:51:48 GMT

Dipsh t Admin

Good points I agree with all

re: Mac Q1 2008 market share: 3.26 percent worldwide, 6.26 percent in the US

MaryW — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 13:31:11 GMT

@Joe-dokes

"Over the past seven years Apple has manage to grow significantly faster than the overall market"

" More amazingly Apple sales in the first quarter were even BETTER than in the fourth quarter of 08."

Joe, if some of us are trying to keep Paul honest then we really need to present accurate facts.

Apple's recent strong growth started around the last quarter (calendar) of 2004. So that's about 3.5 years. Not 7

Q1 08 figures are a few thousand lower than Q4 07.

re: Mac Q1 2008 market share: 3.26 percent worldwide, 6.26 percent in the US

Dipsh t Admin — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 13:17:18 GMT

"it's impossible to find it (almost) on Lenovo's website as it is so badly build and organized."

Really? 4 clicks and you are there. While I'm not going to go out on a limb and say that Lenovo has some great website, which they don't, but I hardly think that 4 clicks is excessive.

"Also I doubt that the A61 with its X64 processor is as silent as the Macmini"

Do you know, or are you guessing? Ever use an A61?

"but it's more expensive/ugly/bulky."

In a business, who really cares what it looks like? And in terms of the expense, are you including purchasing an XP license in your Mac mini figures? Not a fair comparison. Also consider that the A61 comes with a 3 year warranty. All of these must be considered when examining the TCO of a solution.

"but we never had to expand our machines in my company"

I don't do much of that either, but the idea behind a toolless design is the ability to fix or replace parts. As far as a business is concerned, these are important considerations.

"you need to PROVE that it's harder to grow from a larger base."

He has in the past. But, what he is really getting to is that if you already have a large market share, making additional gains becomes tricky in mature markets. Take the iPod. Sales have leveled off, showing that growth is more difficult to grow when you already are bigger. So, doubling market share when you have say 3% is much easier, because the unit growth is manageable. If you already have say 90%, it is nearly physically impossible to double. Or, if you have even 20% of a market, doubling to 40% is not an easy task, because that unit growth is simply not manageable.

Best comparison I can think of is speed. Let's assume that your cars top speed is 100 MPH and typical speed is around 60 MPH. Now, traveling at 5 MPH, doubling to 10 is quite easy and effortless. 10 to 20, still quite easy. 20 to 40 is getting a little harder. 40 to 80 is much harder, and any growth above that becomes that much more difficult. Of course this assumes that this is something like a Smart Car, and not something like a speed limited Nissan GT-R.

re: Mac Q1 2008 market share: 3.26 percent worldwide, 6.26 percent in the US

subzerohitman721 — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 12:58:05 GMT

Let me say this so there's no confusion. A huge Texas sized congrats to Apple for their excellent quarter. 11 years after Apple's darkest hours, they have made a huge come back and shown they've got something to say. Apple did not go quickly into that good night, they stood their ground and fought back from the abyss. I have to admire the tenacity and creative talents of those guys. Great job guys, you've even peeked the curiousity of this die-hard Windows user.

BUT..... As great as they have done, like the Pennsylvania outcome, it did little to change the game. MS is reporting around 140 Million licences of Vista sold since launch. I will give Apple further credit, they're forcing Microsoft to step their game up. Windows Seven will have to deliver big time where Vista has not. (Although a lot of it I believe was hyperbolie press, a lot of the criticism is justified and well deserved.) If Windows Seven anything less than stellar, Microsoft wil have handed the keys to Apple or Linux based OSes to start gaining tremendous ground. I really do think the Intel switch was a great tactic which has fostered this explosive resurgence of Apple.

However, I do honestly feel if Apple needs to come up with a lower end, high quality Mac for the lower income spectrum and soon. Our economic woes here in America will start impacting Apple's bottom line. What I mean is a good quality desktop and notebook line that cost between $399-$499 price range. And not just the box like the Mac mini, I mean the whole package of box, monitor, keyboard and mouse. As consumers tighten their wallets and bare down for $4.00 a gallon gas in the U.S., a thousand dollar Mac will not sell as well here. Rising food cost, tightening credit, foreclosures, and other factors will lead to a decline of Mac sales. American's will go into cheap mode and get the best bargan for their wallets. This has happened before as it did in the early 1990s.

re: Mac Q1 2008 market share: 3.26 percent worldwide, 6.26 percent in the US

johnpapola — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 12:05:47 GMT

In computing, I'd say that it's easier to grow from a large base than a small base, and I think that's pretty much common sense. Computing has "network effects" related to the size of the installed base. Large base = more software devs. More software devs = more people have the software they need. More people use the platform with the software they need = they network with other users in their markets and spread the word as well as the blanket of compatibility.

There's also the word-of-mouth and mental momentum effects. People like to go with the winner. If they perceive a platform as irrelevant, they're less likely to spend money on it. This was Apple's #1 problem in the mid 90's. IBM-compatible was the buzzword everywhere.

Now that much of the world has tasted what Windows has to offer and experienced it's problems with stability, durability and ease of use, they're open to the Mac and the combination of great word-of-mouth, the apple stores, and iPods in most of their hands... the network effects are starting to reverse.

But the point here is simple. Paul, you need to PROVE that it's harder to grow from a larger base. The simple fact that Dell grew faster than everyone but Apple seems to in itself contradict that thesis. The problem with Paul's "analysis" is that he often makes these kinds of declarations as if they're established fact when that couldn't be further from the truth.

re: Mac Q1 2008 market share: 3.26 percent worldwide, 6.26 percent in the US

Avro — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 05:50:15 GMT

I think one thing that Paul and Leo have to admit is that their knowledge of sales outside the US is pretty vague. The Western European (and Canadian) market for Macs is strong and getting stronger.

The BBC has acknowledged that 10% of the UK consumer market are Mac Users and a quick sniff around the mature student submissions at our University in the UK comes up with at least this figure (the software leaves a footprint so we know who uses a Mac). In much of Western Europe the situation is the same. Don't forget our market is about the same size as the US market. We have 3 monthly Mac Magazines in the UK: MacWorld, iCreate, MacFormat and a fourth one publishes every 2 weeks MacUser. So the Mac market is pretty big in Western Europe and more and more Apple Stores are opening here.

Where the Mac is not strong (yet :-) )is in Eastern Europe, Africa and much of Asia.

I did some research last summer and the major country where the Apple was strongest was Canada. Not much higher market penetration than the US, but a couple of percentage points more.

So please stop saying that the Mac does not have much of an international presence outside of the US. It does and it is getting bigger by the day.